New Warming Event Coming to the Arctic This Week into Next Week

Another anomalous warming event will be underway this week into next week in the Arctic, potentially impacting the Arctic Ocean sea ice. Basin average air temperature anomalies exceeding +3-4 C (~5.5-7 F) relative to pre-industrial/anthropogenic warming which began in the 18th and 19th centuries (the baseline for these maps is very recent…1981-2010, with an acceleration in global warming occurring just during that time). The Arctic has been warming much faster than the globe as a whole (twice as fast overall, 3-4 times faster in the interior Arctic). The Arctic had its warmest winter on record in 2017-18 with what were effectively “heat wave” events generated by either huge upper-atmospheric ridges of high pressure from a very high amplitude (very wavy) jet stream producing areas of intense warming; or “atmospheric rivers” of intense heat and moisture transport via intense ocean storms moving in from the Atlantic and Pacific eroding the sea ice sheet in the middle of winter by warm temperatures, high wave action and even rainfall. The Bering-Chukchi Seas of the far northern Pacific and Arctic Oceans have been the lowest sea ice extent on record, likely going back to the mid-19th century (the earliest records can be reconstructed).
Climate change-related warming is melting sea ice rapidly, exposing more dark-blue ocean during the warm season, warming it and the atmosphere, contributing to further warming. It also has led to a weakening of the jet stream and winter time upper-atmospheric polar vortex which stabilizes the Arctic climate and upper-atmospheric circulation pattern, “vortex splitting” and much increases “waviness” in the jet stream, with increasingly extreme Northern Hemisphere winters (persistent areas of abnormal cold, warmth, with wet or dryness and very wild swings between the two states in some regions with strong mid-latitude cyclones produced by the temperature gradients). I discussed this more in a detailed post related to my personal observations of the effect the wild temperature variability has had on seasonality on the Great Plains.
For the Arctic, this new very abnormal warming period is unusual in that this is the middle of Spring and temperature variability typically decreases somewhat after winter. But the jet stream continues with its very high amplitude or “wavy” pattern. Lots of abnormal warmth across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, a couple notable cold spots, but now the Arctic will get assaulted by more heat from the warming mid-latitudes.
Mean temperature anomalies for the month of April (1981-2010 baseline).
But this will be May warmth, not the warmth of January or February. The current sea ice extent, which is around the same as 2016 (which ended the year with the second lowest September minimum on record) may begin decreasing at higher rate, particularly as a days long period of abnormal warmth hits the Central Arctic Basin, which has relatively normal sea ice extent, but record low sea ice area (which subtracts areas within the max extent which are free of sea ice). So bringing in more heat is no good. The Arctic may become ice free in the warm season over the next decade and could do so abruptly.
-Below are Global Forecast System model depictions of temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010) over the Arctic over the next several days as storms move over the Arctic Ocean from Siberia and the far North Atlantic. The last image is the mean temperature anomaly over the next 7 days.
Here’s what those temperature anomalies actually translate too in actual air temperatures (forecast by the American GFS model). No part of the Arctic Ocean is below zero F, with the large swath above freezing on Sunday (and earlier).
I’ll also note, I saw evidence of this warming event in long-range models mid last week…and noticed it will coincide with the beginning of an extensive period of abnormal heat over Western North America (literally from the western US to portions of Alaska), with cooler than normal conditions over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada, with abnormal heating of Europe as well. Parts of Europe have already had periods of record heat in April, including Germany.
Probability of above or below normal temperatures during the 6-10 day period (top) and 8-14 day period (bottom). Very abnormal warmth likely over much of the Western US/Canada, with high probabilities in parts of Alaska and much of the Great Plains. This will continue drought conditions for the Southwest US.
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European Ensemble Model’s ensemble mean temperature anomaly forecast for Europe valid 12 UTC May 3rd. Periods of abnormally warm temperatures appear likely across the region between now and next week.

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey








High Amplitude Jet Stream Pattern To Lead to Extremely Abnormal Temps for Central/Eastern US; “Blow Torch” Heat to Arctic.

The US will be a land of extremes as a high amplitude jet stream…the story of this winter continues to impact the US as very abnormally cold temperatures impact the Central US and (later) the Great Lakes region, with very abnormal heat spreading northward into the Eastern third of the country mid-week. Sunday, much of the Great Plains were experiencing temperatures 20-25 degrees F above normal (~10-12 degrees C). As the week progresses, the jet stream amplitude over North America will intensify and bring highs of 30 degrees F (15+ C) or greater above normal mid-week to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the mid-Atlantic and New England states. This means mid-Spring highs on the East Coast and a resumption of well below freezing temps over the Central and Northern Plains.

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In addition to the abnormal temperatures, another major story will be potentially heavy rainfall across a wide swath of the Midwest and Deep South ahead of the accompanying cold front which will push eastward mid-week. Abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will aid in the generation of rainfall, some of which will help short term drought conditions, but could also produce flash flooding.

Moderate risk of flash flooding over portion of Texas, Oklahoma, much of Arkansas and southern Missouri Tuesday.
Tuesday evening forecast surface map showing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall likely from Texas to Michigan.

The Arctic Ocean has been experiencing an extraordinarily warm winter with consistent high heat to the region (relative to regional norms). As a result, sea ice has been suffering severely as the combination of high amplitude high pressure ridging and ocean cyclones push heat, wave action and wind into the sea ice sheet, along with very abnormal sea surface temperature right up against the sea ice (9-18 degrees F/5-10 degrees C above normal). Sea ice extent is currently running at the lowest on record in the history of human civilization, rapid melting already in progress in the northern Bering Sea, and 2017 annual sea ice volume was the lowest on record. The current max extent this season occurred on February 6th. The current earliest maximum peak extent is February 25th in 2015. The current record year for record minimum peak extent is 2017…2018 is currently beating that record and has the 2nd lowest year-to-date volume as well.


The sea ice is showing some signs of refreezing after its early February peak. However, more extreme heat is to come as more storms from both the Bering Sea and the North Atlantic advance heat and moisture into the Arctic Ocean this week. One storm will move over far Eastern Siberia and into the Chukchi Sea on Tuesday. Wednesday, another, stronger storm will approach Greenland, moving over the Canadian Archipelago Thursday, slowly shifting toward the Beaufort Sea Friday.


Note the last two sea level pressure images for 2/23 and 2/24. Not only the strength of the cyclone (in blue) but the tightly packed lines of equal pressure (isobars) between the low pressure system and the strong high pressure system over the Barents Sea, north of Scandinavia. These tightly packed isobars represent a very strong pressure gradient which will result in very strong southerly wind gusts (near hurricane-force) and intense wave action striking the sea ice sheet of the Arctic Ocean mid to late week. This in combination with the very warm, moist air moving into the region will make for a “blow torch” of heat from the Atlantic, eroding the cold conditions of the Arctic, stunting the freeze season further. This will likely lead to further ceasing or recession of sea ice as well.

GFS forecast high temperature for Thursday, showing above freezing temperatures penetrating into the deep Arctic. This may continue into Friday. Today through Tuesday will feature near or above freezing temperatures moving out of the Bering Sea into the southern Chukchi Sea as well.

I’ve been tracking the Arctic all season and there has been a shocking level of persistent warmth in the region with 2-3 degrees C above normal temps (for the region) being quite common many more extreme day higher than that. The Arctic Ocean basin may experience, as a region, anomalous temperatures of an incredible 6-8 degrees C above normal Tuesday-Saturday. This is relative to the 1981-2010 average. However, as climate change is abruptly warming the Arctic region, leading to rapid sea ice loss compared to the past, relative to the late 19th and mid 18th centuries (in the early era of human generated climate change), the anomalies are likely 0.7 or 1  degree C higher than that, respectively.

GFS Anomalous temperature forecasts for the Arctic region valid 00 UTC Feb 23rd. Extreme heat by regional standards over the Arctic for much of the week.

The implications for the collapse of sea ice are quite serious. The sea ice sheet regulates the jet stream by making the Arctic region permanently cold across a wide area. As long it it remains permanent with only modest seasonal melt, it can behave much like a continental ice sheet would behave on the atmosphere (like in Antarctica). The jet stream exists because the Arctic atmosphere is cold throughout the vertical column. The strong temperature gradient with the mid-latitudes is what makes it exist. But with abrupt warming of the Arctic caused by the collapsing ice sheet (which feeds back on accelerating such a collapse), this weakens the jet stream and has been causing it to become wavier with increasingly more extreme and frequent high amplitude patterns (which feedback and melt the Arctic more). Such research has been conducted by scientists such as Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University and others, showing the jet stream slowing and becoming higher in amplitude since the 1960s. Such abrupt warming also leads events such as “sudden stratospheric warming” and “splitting” of the polar vortex, supporting Arctic blasts to the south and abundant heat transport to the Arctic.

If the ice sheet collapses completely (no more in summer, low to little meaningful extent in the polar night), you get even more abrupt warming of the sea surface from below and above through collapse of the ocean thermocline (persistently cold water “cap” atop somewhat warmer water) and air temperature inversion (warmer air atop cold surface air) as well as from the much reduced albedo (white, reflective surface). The warming atmospheric column with height further reduces the temperature gradient with the mid-latitudes, weakening the jet further and causing more extreme “wave action”, greater blocking patterns as you get these big waves and little eastward progression of systems and the polar jet actually retreats farther north. This can dramatically shift precipitation patterns northward could cause much hotter, drier conditions in the mid-latitudes. It’s been a major concern for a long time in in climate change science, but a process thought to be of concern in the “high emissions” scenarios of the mid to late 21st century as increasing aridity across the mid-latitudes would destroy forests and not allow crops to be grown where they are currently grown because of increasing extreme heat (or storms). So this would have impacts not only in the Arctic, but also in the mid-latitudes. Unfortunately, a recent phrase has been increasing use the past few years. “Faster than expected”. Some prominent researchers openly admit an ice-free Arctic may be possible before 2020. See also HERE.

I’ll have more on the situation in the Arctic this week as well as the heavy rainfall in the US. Also, keep an eye on Tropical Storm Gita approaching New Zealand to start the week!

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

Cyclone Gita headed for close passage of Tonga

Cyclone Gita in the South Pacific is a powerful Category 4-equivalent tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale (as of the time of this post). Maximum sustained winds analyzed by the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center are up to 130 mph with gusts to 155 mph. Gita is moving westward and is expected to pass near or over Tonga around 12 UTC Monday (6 am CST or 1 am Tuesday local time). The storm is expected to be at least a powerful Category 4 storm. There is moderate wind shear (increasing winds with height effecting the cyclone and limiting more rapid intensification. However, with water temperatures along the path of 28-29 degrees C (82-84 degrees F) and well-organized structure, Gita will be a potentially catastrophic storm if its eye wall moves over the main island. Gita will also produce very heavy rain (perhaps 6-12 inches) which will lead to flooding. A state of emergency has been declared in the island nation.

Gita (9P) moving westward toward Tonga. Visible satellite image at 04:52 UTC Monday.
03 UTC Monday Advisory on Cyclone Gita by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

After 24 hours, Gita is expected to gradually weaken as sea surface temperatures cool and vertical wind shear increases as the system begins to turn to the southwest into higher latitudes. However, Gita is expected to remain a hurricane-force storm through the end of the week.

New Zealand will need to keep an eye on the remnants of Gita as the dying circulation an moisture plume may curve back southeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies. While, the forecast will certainly change somewhat…such as the position of the upper-level trough of low pressure southwest of New Zealand which will cause the system to curve back towards the country beginning Sunday…any remnant system may lead to locally heavy rainfall for both the North and South Islands early to mid-week next week.

European Model accumulated total precipitation forecast ending 00 UTC February 22nd. The remnants of Gita are forecast to curve back southeast toward New Zealand early next week delivering very rainfall.


–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

Major Pattern Change for North America and Arctic Next Week.

A major weather pattern shift will be occur next week for North America into the Arctic as the jet stream…which already has been largely higher in amplitude and experiencing some blocking with little eastward progression of long-waves in the upper-atmosphere, will becoming extremely amplified (north-south) next week bringing very warm air up into Alaska, Yukon and the Arctic Ocean and a modified Arctic air mass from Nunavut and the Northwest Territories of Canada into the central US. Let’s take a look at things.

The current pattern dominating North America has been strong ridge of high pressure over the Western US or Eastern Pacific with a prominent trough over the eastern US with some fluctuation in the wave pattern east or west, but not much significant change, except in the center of the country which has seen more significant swings between these two states. The east, including even the Southeast saw significant snow. The west has seen abnormal warmth with record fires in California. Currently the ridge of upper-atmosphere ridge is forecast by US and European models to build to an extremely high amplitude the end of next week north over portions of Alaska and Yukon and into the margins of the Arctic Ocean. This as a very intense trough is forced south over the US.

European model forecast for the wave pattern of the mid-level atmosphere valid 6 pm CST 12/23.
This extreme amplification will drive an Arctic surface air high pressure system out of the Northwest Territories with very cold air this week, with this air mass advancing into the US beginning Thursday into this weekend. Meanwhile stormier conditions will moving from the Bering Sea into the Chukchi Sea driving up temperatures in the far north. And California with all the fires? Remains abnormally warm and dry.

Temperatures the afternoon of Christmas Eve (European Model forecast).

Greatest signal for low to no precipitation the next 10 days is south-central to southern CA into much of AZ and NV.
The Arctic:

As I spoke about in a previous post, the Arctic is having its second warmest year on record and lowest annual sea ice volume on record as climate change continues to abnormally warm the Arctic. The highly amplified wave pattern is much a product of the current weak La Nina pattern. However, the intensity of the amplification and resulting amplified warming of the Arctic is also a function of the long-term global warming regime dominating the polar region and causing record warmth and reductions in sea ice. I noticed this amplified wave pattern will have interesting impacts on the Arctic weather pattern and possibly the tenuous sea ice beginning next week.

Right now, a prominent surface high pressure region…associated with the Beaufort Gyre…is over the Arctic Ocean north of Alaska and eastern Siberia. By the middle of next week, this gyre will weaken as strong low pressure systems approach the Arctic from both the Bering Sea and the far North Atlantic.

Prominent high pressure of the Beaufort Gyre over the sea ice of the Arctic Ocean.

European Model depiction of low pressure system advancing into the Arctic Ocean from the Bering Sea on Christmas Eve. This may be the strongest in a series of lows (2-3) beginning late week. Stormy conditions will also impact areas near Svalbard (islands just east of northeast Greenland) late-week and weekend.
The Gyre is vulnerable because of the areas of open water and tenuous sea ice which remains over the Chukchi Sea…record low extent for this time of year. The ice being cold creates the surface high pressure system and clockwise circulation. But last year, this gyre collapsed because of slow sea ice growth allowing for storms with warm, moist air to move into the Arctic and further slowed sea ice growth. It appears this may be forecast to happen again during the tail end of this month.

European Model forecast surface temperatures showing well above normal temps shifting northward late week into Christmas Eve over the Arctic Ocean north Svalbard and the Chukchi Sea. While exact values will change, general pattern appears likely.
Depending on the strength of the low pressure systems, not only will the tenuous sea ice in the Arctic…widespread areas 1.5 meters or less in thickness (less than a meter in the Chukchi Sea)…deal with more warm air temperatures limiting sea ice growth, but also wave action which may destroy the ice, particularly from the Pacific side as cyclones are expected to move across the Arctic from the Pacific. We’ll see how much impact those storms have and how intense they are. If the upper-level wave pattern is as amplified as forecast by models 5-8 days out (no reason to think otherwise as he reach the point of good reliability for the upper-atmosphere), it’s a good set up for strong low pressure systems to develop in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic. And with the highly amplified blocking high over the Eastern Pacific, storms will be forced to track into Alaska and into the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas and deep Arctic Ocean.

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

La Nina Pattern Begins in the Pacific Ocean

A weak La Nina atmosphere-ocean pattern has fully developed in the Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is part of the cool phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is characterized by abnormally low surface pressure in the Western side of the Pacific Basin and abnormally high pressure on the Eastern side. This causes an enhancement of the easterly trade winds, causing significant upwelling of cold water along the equatorial coast of South America, with a build up of very warm water in the Western Pacific.

Schematic of La Nina oceanic ocean-atmosphere pattern in the Pacific and expected jet stream behavior and temperature/precipitation impacts in the US/Canada during a La Nina winter.

ENSO patterns, as shown above can cause noticeable changes in the seasonal weather patterns over North America, particularly during the winter months. The jet stream can become more amplified, leading to a Pacific jet producing cooler and wetter than normal conditions over the Pacific Northwest, extending into the northern tier states. Meanwhile, the “Sun Belt” of the US can see abnormally warm, dry conditions.

The caveat of all this is is the strength of the La Nina versus the degree of influence other atmospheric patterns have on the seasonal climate variability. Other patterns include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-surface pressure variability between the semi-permanent Icelandic Low and Azores High), Arctic Oscillation (AO-pressure anomalies between Arctic and mid-latitudes, closely related to NAO), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (which can speed the development and enhance the effects of a El Nino or La Nina phase), among others on various timescales.

So what does it mean for our winter in the US? Well, as of now, the NWS Climate Prediction Center is generating winter temperature/precipitation forecasts accounting for the development of La Nina, with a strong latitudinal effect on temperature and precipitation. Below/above in the north and above/below in the south, respectively.

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In the meantime, long-range forecasts show the North Atlantic Oscillation becoming “negative” later in November (characterized by a south to north pressure gradient between the Azores high over Portugal and the Icelandic to the north). This pattern is favorable for an amplified upper-level jet stream wave pattern over North America and the North Atlantic and intrusions of cold air deep into the eastern half of the US. So in the shorter term colder than normal conditions may be possible for these areas this month (as has already occurred this week).


When it comes to these “teleconnections”…the various cycles of variability within the annual climate regime of Earth…they can most definitely give us a head’s up on to what to expect in general. A canvas of how the weather may be behave over the course of days to weeks and months. But we must keep track of how these different cycles interact with each other and how they vary individually in terms of strength and mode. One curiosity is the strength and persistence of the La Nina. If it was fairly weak, it is more likely to be dominated by other teleconnections at times during the course of the winter, versus if it intensifies and produces more persistent effects on the upper-level air patterns.

Overall, the expected winter pattern is good news for drought-stricken areas in the northern tier such as Montana and the Dakotas. We will have to watch areas along the southern tier for potential further drought development. And as mentioned, November and at least early December could feature a more amplified jet stream so that even areas in the Southeast which may end up with an above average winter overall may see serious impacts from cold because of Arctic intrusions (something for citrus growers to watch out for in Florida, for example).

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

GOES-16 Satellite Loop of California Wildfire Smoke


The new geostationary weather satellite, GOES-16 captured this high spatio-temporal resolution loop of the smoke plume over the Bay Area of Northern California this evening before sunset. The deep smoke is embedded in the low-level north winds, while the white, high cirrus clouds are in southwesterly flow. You can right click to save or open in the new tab to see the larger version of it. It’s amazing but frightening to know what’s happening under all that smoke.

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

JPL 2017 Eclipse Simulator

Anyone want to know what the 2017 Eclipse will look like at your location with nice graphics and all? Check out this excellent simulator put together by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. You’ll be able to animate the eclipse for any given location in the US from beginning to end and find out what to expect. I made a collection of some of the locations which will experience partial eclipses (all at their time of maximum eclipse). All these location were in areas of 75% or greater obscuration of the solar disk. Optical and atmospheric effects begin to take hold with 75% obscuration as incoming shortwave radiation from the sun is significantly reduced. Read more about that in my previous July post HERE if you haven’t already. Remember, however, that even with 99% obscuration, the sun will still be too bright and therefore too dangerous too look at directly without certified eclipse glasses. Direct viewing of the sun for multiple minutes can blind you, any amount can cause eye injury!

Seattle, WA. My home city! 92% Obscuration.
Portland, OR. 99% Obscuration. So close to totality, yet so far!
San Francisco
San Francisco, CA. 75.5% Obscuration.
Denver, CO. 92% Obscuration.
Brookings, SD. The location of my undergraduate alma mater South Dakota State University. 89% Obscuration.
Minneapolis, MN. My Mom and much of my extended family lives here. They’ll take in the show. 83% Obscuration.
Dallas, TX. 75% Obscuration.
Atlanta, GA. 97% Obscuration.
Washington, DC. 81% Obscuration.
Jacksonville, FL. 90.5% Obscuration.

Additional eclipse info for this post (such as max eclipse time) is courtesy of Xavier Jubier’s 2017 Total Eclipse Interactive Map.