The sun shines on the middle of the continent while the coasts face the wrath of ocean storms

Quite the day out in weather world, although you wouldn’t know it from looking outside here in the land of the corn. Beautiful day, although still waiting for the leaves to make an appearance. Soon enough, but the sun shines bright overhead. Calming and peaceful for a walk later.

Outside my favorite coffee shop in Lincoln. 52 degrees F and very light wind. Your normal late March day in all its glory.

After a winter which was tumultuous with big temperature swings (sometimes 50 degrees F within days), it’s nice to have a little stability for some days. Looking near or mildly above normal temperatures the next several days with periods of rain showers. Our winter in this region was less than 0.5 C below normal relative to 1981-2010, but running 0.5-1 C above normal relative to 1881-1910 when factoring the effect of climate change. And temperatures from anthropogenic climate change began rising globally after the mid-1700s, so late-19th century values are still conservative on the changes which have occurred here. People around here were complaining about how cold it was this winter. It could’ve been a lot worse as we had a few 60 and 70 degree temperatures in February mixed with the 10s and 20s for highs in January and February! Just wild.


Global temps relative to the late-20th century vs. the late-19th century (the latter showing the effect of anthropogenic climate change very obvious). The Arctic is getting “hot” (for the survival of sea ice) fast with major effects on the region and world for further global warming.

Actually reminds me of a story in the coffee shop of a mother and adult daughter discussing this past winter. The daughter saying how “normal” it was to have these huge swings in temperature and crazy weather (snow then short-sleeve weather). Mother saying “Well I remember when I was young, it would be more consistently cold with a lot more snow, not like now”. What’s normal has changed with time in a lot of world, but you wouldn’t know it unless the different generations notice and chit chat about it.

Our chances of snow appear to be over. Never say never, as the East Coast seems to be getting blasted by these cold storms, but when you start seeing these consistent mild conditions finally, it’s usually a sign of the seasonal transition…finally.

I do have some concern over this Spring’s tornado season I must say. La Nina periods in the El Nino Southern Oscillation tend to be known for quite intense tornado outbreaks. Trying to get a science paper reading in about it this week if I can. The Gulf of Mexico waters are running above normal for moisture, the South has been quite warm overall with record warm days and months this winter. And jet stream dynamics continue to be favorable for bringing periodic shear profiles for significant severe weather. The atmosphere put on quite a show this weekend in the Deep South where it is climatologically favorable for tornado activity. Reminds me to prep an emergency kit. We do have a weather radio, but with things like tornadoes and urban flooding, you never know when you will need a little more to get through a few days of darkness and no refrigeration.

While, it’s quiet here, the West and East Coasts are being battered by major winter storms to start Spring. Very strong upper-level trough over the eastern third of the country and another over the Eastern Pacific means the 4th nor’easter of the month in the East and huge atmospheric river event in Southern California. Heavy snow or flooding/mudslides?

Middle atmosphere wave pattern showing deep trough generating significant coastal storm with snow over the mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Atmospheric river from SW flow over California.
Strong east coast storm. You can also see how dead quiet it is over the center of country from prominent high pressure overhead.
Moderate to heavy snow falling over New Jersey and New York City/Long Island.
Strong West Coast storm impacting California with heavy rain.
Moderate to heavy rainfall impacting parts of Southern California. Problems with flooding and mudslides/debris flows likely. (radar as of 1 pm PDT).

Good mid-week to all and stay safe in these stormy areas!

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey


Meteorological Analysis of January 22, 2017 Great Plains/Midwest Blizzard As It Happened

Here is a meteorological analysis I did on Monday of the blizzard which raked much of the Central Plains and upper Midwest from Nebraska and Kansas to Minnesota and Wisconsin with heavy snow and high winds. It was recorded around 11:30 am CST Monday. Those who follow me on my Facebook page (also see my feed on the sidebar) were able to see it right after it was uploaded, but I’m posting it here for those interested in hearing me discuss the event as it happened. Peak snow totals up to a foot and a half resulted in parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota. Lincoln and surrounding parts of the town only saw 2-3 inches but the totals increased dramatically not far west and north. We got off easy compared to the one foot and greater totals in northeast Nebraska. Winds gusts throughout the region peaked 45-60 mph. You can hear the noise of the high wind through my door in the video.

By the way, my son Bruce makes a guest appearance as he tries to turn off my computer while recording. Haha.

Strong Winter Storm Impacting portions of Plains and Midwest Early Week

A strong winter storm is pushing across the Great Plains tonight. North of the low will experience widespread blizzard conditions and heavy snow. South of the low milder conditions with rain.

Infrared image, but with surface frontal analysis added, valid at 6 pm CST.


Parts of far southern Nebraska, into Iowa have a tight gradient between little to no snow vs. heavy snow with high winds. An example…my location in Lincoln, NE where the National Weather Service is calling for 3-4 inches for the day Monday and just added the county under a blizzard warning after 24 hrs ago thinking the area would only receive up to 1 inch with gusty winds and much better travel conditions.

A difference less than 24 hrs makes. Lincoln now expects up to half a foot of snow (see below) and places expecting 7-8 inches are now expecting 12-18 inches!


The whole system has been trending southeastward in the models and in reality and so the official forecast has been trended slightly higher and significantly so in places of central and northeastern Nebraska which may get up to a foot with isolated amounts up to 18 inches! The bigger story are winds which may gusts 35-50+ mph across much of the north-central Plains during the night and during the day Monday. This will induce the blizzard conditions, with very low visibilities.


Conditions will improve across Nebraska and South Dakota by tomorrow evening as the storm shifts northeastward, continuing to impact northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, as well as Wisconsin and upper Michigan with locally heavy snow and gusty winds.

If you’re in an area under blizzard or winter storm warnings, stay off the roads during the worst of the conditions unless absolutely necessary as the roads will be treacherous and visibility poor, particularly outside major cities, where snow can blow around easily. If you have to travel, drive slowly and with care.

Very above normal temperatures dominating US to end November

Much above normal temperatures are dominating much of the United States right now. This is largely a product of a zonal or progressive jet stream moving along the northern tier states and southern Canada locking colder air over interior Canada and the Arctic (although, I note, the Arctic is seeing much above normal temperatures relative to what they should be seeing as well!).

My area…Eastern Nebraska…has been seeing many days of 60s and even mid-70s, including today. The average temperatures this time of year should be in the low to mid-40s for highs and near 20 for lows. Instead it’s been feeling like it’s around birthday time for me. My birthday is in May.

Global Forecast System model analysis of surface air temperature anomalies for November 27th. The GFS tends to have a minor warm bias from reality, but it is accurate is showing significant above normal temps over the western and central sections of the United States. The baseline normal period is 1979-2000, prior to the significant amplification of climatic warming in the Arctic (occurring because of anthropogenic global warming).
Global Forecast System model forecast depiction of upper-air wave pattern at 250 millibars (~10,200 meters/33,500 ft) valid Wednesday morning. The jet stream will remain largely over the northern tier and southern Canada this week with above normal temps of varying departures over the US.

As we move into the first week of December, trends point to some dip in the jet stream over the Western US early next week causing below normal temperatures. However, this will also amplify the jet stream over the eastern two-thirds, producing significantly above normal temperatures yet again.

One additional thing of note. Snow cover is virtually non-existent in the contiguous US today (Nov. 27th). Only 4% of the CONUS has snow cover today. Going back to 2003, this is lowest snow cover extent for this particular date. The second and third lowest for Nov. 27th were 8.7% (2009) and 10.2% (2011). The snow cover area extents on Nov. 27th in 2010, 2012-2015 were in the range of 20-35%. 2016 was fairly low at 15.4%. The data is available HERE.

Snow depth analysis map for the US and southern Canada for November 27, 2017.

I don’t know date prior to 2003, however it is known that climate change is reducing snow cover extent and depth in the US and the Northern Hemisphere beyond natural variability. The aforementioned trough in the West should increase that extent somewhat next week.

Life Update

I thought now would be a good time to update on my life as some big changes are ahead. My fiance, son and I will be moving to St. Cloud, MN at the beginning of January. I’ve been accepted into the Geographic Information Science master’s program at St. Cloud State University. GISci is the study of the theory and applications of geographic information systems (hardware and software apps) for collecting, storing, and manipulating location data for visualization, analysis and modeling. I will be pursuing a second master’s degree (first is in Geosciences – Applied Meteorology from Mississippi State in 2016).

Our primary reason to move is to be closer to my side of the family. My Mom, grandparents and many cousins all live in the Minneapolis Metro area. St. Cloud is less than a hour away from where many of them live. However, I decided after much thought, to return to school for GIS because I’ve had a lot of interest in the technology and applications of it since I was a meteorology/climatology major at the University of Nebraska and there are many career opportunities for those with expertise in the technology and theory of it in many fields. Meteorology is *much* harder to get into (which I knew going in), and while I certainly am open to meteorology and experience (more on that in a bit), I want to gain much greater knowledge in a highly valued field. I’ve taken a few GIS and cartography courses as an undergrad and required intro course as a graduate student, but there is much left for me to learn which could go a long way toward career prospects. I’m doing the thesis-track option (my first masters was non-thesis), but I’m still formulating details on what I want to research, beyond ideas I briefly discussed in my graduate statement of intent.

On another note, for the 2nd year, I’ll be doing online mountain weather forecasting for the Fire Weather & Avalanche Center, based in northeast Oregon. The FWAC is a non-profit organization which does forecasting (mostly volunteer) for fire weather and snowfall and avalanche hazards, focused on northeast Oregon, although weather is discussed throughout the Pacific Northwest. The focus in particular is on back country recreation and travel. I will begin my weekly Saturday and Sunday 48 hr forecast shifts this weekend through this winter. Again, mostly volunteer, but valuable experience which regularly utilizes my skills as a forecaster. I’m hoping to have involvement in the fire weather operations next year. In the meantime, look for links to my Oregon mountain forecasts for the FWAC posted on my Twitter and Facebook feeds as they are written. The interactive mountain weather forecast page is HERE.

It will be a busy couple of months, but the changes should be very positive!

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–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey


My view of the August 21, 2017 Total Eclipse.


What an amazing event! The moon’s shadow gave a big show across America today and at 1:02 pm CDT it rushed over Lincoln, NE at over 1500 mph. Day turned to night, the temperature dropped and a 360 degree twilight ruled the midday.

First…my video!

Screen capture from video during totality in Lincoln, NE. Shows the “eclipse twilight” surrounding the city. Photo by me (Nick Humphrey).

The temperature in Lincoln dropped from 81 degrees around noon to 77 degrees after 1 pm and totality. Many locations along the eclipse path experienced temperature falls of 3-5 degrees as a result of the passage of the Moon’s shadow. Meteorologists also observed (both on the ground and with satellite imagery) the collapse of convective cumulus clouds dependent upon surface heating to “bubble”, which was lost during the advanced partial and total eclipses.

Cumulus cloud field impacted by the eclipse. Cloud field (12:42 pm CDT) dissipates by 2:32 pm CDT as totality approaches. Photo courtesy of AccuWeather Meteorologist Becky DePodwin. Lowering of temperature weakens upward convection currents likely limiting maintenance of cumulus clouds and leading to their dissipation in the absence of other lifting mechanisms.

You can watch the progression of the Moon’s shadow across North America below (video is only four seconds long so you’ll have to replay to see it more than once at a time):

All I can say is that this was one of most spectacular events of nature I’ve ever witnessed. I’ve witnessed multiple total lunar eclipses and while they are spooky (especially in the middle of the night), nothing can beat the powerful changes which a total solar eclipse can bring to the landscape.

The clouds, which were the most problematic for eclipse viewing in Nebraska ended up breaking enough to see totality itself, but also provided a canvas for the incredible glow of midday twilight. It was quite magical.

The next total solar eclipse in the Lower 48 is April 8, 2024. Totality in parts of Texas (which will include Austin and Dallas/Fort Worth Metro) could last nearly 4 1/2 min compared to the 2 min 40 sec max with today’s eclipse. If time and finances align, I definitely want travel for that one if I don’t live near it by then.

Anyone have any eclipse experiences they want to share? I’ll be checking out WordPress posts too! 🙂

PS-A view from a Omaha news station of the twilight colors with clouds HERE (video) within totality near Beatrice, NE, south of Lincoln.

National Weather Service Sky Cover Forecast for Eclipse

Consider this the final forecast and here on out its whatever Mother Nature decides. Overall looks great for the West (0-30% cloud coverage), deteriorates significantly over the Plains/Midwest (50-70%), improves back to low coverage over southern IL and TN (where totality will be at or near max possible), and deteriorates again over South Carolina. 

Hoping for the best in Lincoln, Nebraska with 50-60% cloud coverage most likely transparent high clouds, however scattered opaque mid-level clouds are also possible which would diminish any serious solar viewing. My fiancé Cassie and I will head off to South Lincoln with our 1yr old and position ourselves at a location in view of the sun and the western sky (where the shadow will advance into town at 1500 mph). Whether we see the sun or on, it will turn to night at 1:02 pm CDT and last nearly 1 min 45 sec at our chosen location. We intend to have photos and I’ll also take video with my GoPro.

For 2017 Eclipse Coverage please follow me on Facebook or Twitter (see feeds on my main page for direct links). I will post on the progress of the eclipse on both platforms after the umbra’ landfall in Oregon at 10:16 PDT thru it’s exit from South Carolina after 2:50 pm EDT. Yes it’s only taking about a hour and a half for the umbra to blast across the US! 

I will do a post-eclipse photo/video post hopefully by this evening or tomorrow for WordPress 😊

Incoming shortwave radiation with eclipse effects as depicted by the experimental High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRRx) for 12:45 pm CDT Monday. Note the solar radiation “hole” which includes the umbra and “eclipse twilight”. (NOAA)