Sky Conditions for August 21, 2017 Eclipse

The Great North American Eclipse is almost here! On Monday, the Moon’s inner shadow or umbra will touchdown over the open Pacific Ocean and rush toward a landfall in Oregon after 10:15 am PDT and exit the South Carolina Coast after 2:50 pm EDT. The shadow will be advancing across at around 1500-2000 mph. An incredible speed.

For an overview of the atmospheric phenomena to expect during the eclipse, see my previous late-July article on the August 21, 2017 Eclipse.

With the eclipse on Monday, the biggest concern is the weather…specifically sky conditions. The National Service, out of national interest in the eclipse (which will ONLY be seen in the United States) now has forecasts available, with special interest in sky condition forecasts.

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US National Weather Service Sky Condition Map (% sky cloud covered) valid 2 pm EDT Monday August 21st. Moon’s umbra will be over Nebraska at this time. 
Much of the eclipse path is *decent* (50% or less sky coverage forecast), although clear skies are extremely ideal. The best skies for totality are expected to be over the Northwest sector of the US, with greater cloud coverage (near 50% over the Central Plains/Missouri). There will be some improvement over Tennessee, but possible afternoon showers and thunderstorms may cloud up skies more significantly over extreme northeast Georgia and into South Carolina.

With that said…just remember…1) There’s more to the eclipse but totality! Regardless of whether you’re in the path or not, dealing with scattered clouds or not, enjoy the eclipse! Watch the crescents form in the shadows of trees, make a pinhole viewer (like this or this for example…I’m planning on making one!), if you have certified eclipse glasses or shades…safely observe the sun directly, and if you’re in a very deep partial (75%+) enjoy the effects of the weakening sun on temperature, sky and the animals. Also…2) For those in totality, all you need is that precious 1 or 2+ mins to be clear around the eclipsed sun. Hopefully, with that 50% or less sky coverage, that will be easier to achieve.


My Plans-

As you all may know, I live in Lincoln, NE…in the path of totality. As the city is literally on the northern edge of the shadow, there is a tight gradient for the length of totality; anywhere from tens of seconds on the north end of town, to 1 min 45 seconds on the south end of town. My house will see around 1 min 15 seconds. We had planned on going to Grand Island, NE about a hour and a half west of here to visit a relative of hers and see the eclipse at 2 min 35 sec (near max possible duration)…but our car has an issue which makes it not reliable for traveling on the highway! 😦 Literally found this out today! Extremely disappointed as there isn’t enough time for us to get the car fixed.  But considering we’re still IN totality vs. not, I can’t completely complain. So instead, we’ll be heading to the south end for the maximum length in Lincoln. I’ll have my GoPro set up on a mini-tripod to capture very high-res video of the last minutes before totality and during it. My fiance and I will also take lots of photographs. I will have updates on my Twitter and FB pages as the partial eclipse advances toward totality (feeds also can be seen from the website…but please follow me directly! 🙂 ).

It should be an exciting day! Everyone have safe viewing and have fun!

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Tropical Storm Gert View

Anyone been watching the North Atlantic this weekend. Beautiful view of Tropical Storm Gert this midday Monday. It will remain well offshore the US East Coast and west of Bermuda as it re-curves to the north this week. I may also become a hurricane as it does so by mid-week thanks to interaction with the Gulf Stream and favorable pole-ward outflow as it interacts initially with the westerlies prior to extratropical transition late-week.

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On the docket this week for Weather & Climate News –

  1. The Great American Total Solar Eclipse is ONE WEEK AWAY! Will discuss national weather and other things eclipse-related.
  2. More on potential tropical activity.
  3. Will continue with Part 2 of WxClimoEd discussing impacts of Global Climate Change.

For the Eclipse, my fiance and I’ll be heading to Grand Island, NE for the eclipse where totality will last 2 minutes 33 seconds (compared to the south side of Lincoln where the eclipse will only last 1 min 45 sec). We’ll have our 1 yr old with us (his birthday is August 17!) and will hangout with a couple of my fiance’s relatives in town. Should be exciting!

2016 State of the Climate: The Sobering Data

Today The American Meteorological Society, in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their yearly peer-reviewed “State of the Climate” report detailing the state of the global climate. It is…not positive at all.

You can see the full report HERE. But here are the bullet points:

-The report confirms, via independent datasets that 2016 was the warmest year on record for human observations (most world observations go back to mid-1800s). Not only for Earth’s atmosphere but for the Earth’s oceans.

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-The Earth’s surface averaged 1.06-1.21 degrees C above pre-industrial levels (depending on datasets available). It is the second year in a row the global land and ocean temperature averaged over 1 degree C. The “danger” zone for destructive impacts on human society and ecosystems around the world according to climate scientists is 2 degrees C or higher. Even 1.5 C would begin to have very hazardous impacts.

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-Global carbon dioxide concentration in Earth’s atmosphere (the main greenhouse gas being added by human activity) exceeded 400 part per million on average for the first time ever in human history. Not only that…This is the highest level in Earth’s atmosphere in at least 800,000 years based on data taken from ice cores. For comparison, pre-industrial levels of carbon dioxide concentration was approximately 280 ppm (only 150 yrs ago).

-The increase in the yearly average of carbon dioxide by 3.5 ppm from 2015 to 2016 is the largest increase observed in the 58 year history of observations.

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-2016 featured significant portions of land areas suffering from “extreme heat”…heat above the 90 percentile compared to the 1961-1990 average temperature for the location.

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-2016 was the warmest year on record for the ocean, causing major stresses for ocean ecosystems, including coral reefs. Over 90% of global warming heating goes into the oceans (100+ zetajoules (1 x 10^23 joules) since 1993…it takes ~4 joules of heat to warm 1 gram of water by 1 degree C…it takes A LOT of energy to raise the temperature of water).

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-Sea levels are rising nearly everywhere, at different rates. Added water and thermal expansion by the heating of water are both factors. This is the 6th consecutive year of increase.

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-Severe drought impacted at least 12% of the planet’s land area each month of 2016 for the first time in history. (Note: The drought conditions in the Amazon Rain Forest in 2015-16 the third “100-year” event since 2005 with previous events in 2005 and 2010).

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-Arctic sea ice had its lowest winter maximum on record and second lowest summer minimum on record in 2016. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has ice up to 110,000 yrs old and has the ability to contribute to up to 7 meters sea-level rise is at a record low value.

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-2016 was the 37th consecutive year of worldwide Alpine glacial retreat.

-Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover was the 4th least extensive in the 47-yr record.

-Record high temperatures at 20 meters were observed at depth in permafrost observatories in Alaska and Canada.

-The United States had the 2nd warmest year on record in 2016 and the 20th consecutive warmer than normal year.


It’s interesting that this came out today because I was actually just beginning to write the draft to the next in the series of WxClimoEd “Understanding Global Climate Change“. But then this blew up my Twitter LOL. This pretty much gives me a good addition to what I would’ve discussed anyways. So let’s do just that…

It appears to me that we have crossed in the 2015-2017 period some crucial thresholds in the “era” of anthropogenic climate change. We are continuing to pump more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than Earth can remove through natural processes. We are essentially heavily polluting our atmosphere with CO2. Earth itself appears to have become a “1 degree C” world in terms of average temperature and major impacts expected to develop as a result. In addition, while our atmosphere is heating up, our oceans are also taking in incredible amounts of energy, slowly heating up and it’s quite literally cooking our marine life, all while the oceans undergo acidification from the CO2 they are taking in which is also causing harm to ecosystems. Coral reefs are facing this head on along with hundreds of thousands of species with depend on them. This is discussed is in the documentary Chasing Coral, which I reviewed HERE.

This year…2017…continues to see further signs of major problems which were predicted to be likely results of climate change.

-The first six months of 2017 (January-June) was the second warmest on record behind 2016. It is also the second warmest on record for the United States.

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-July saw record heat for the Western US and Alaska including record July or all-time record maximum monthly temps and sea ice within range of the Arctic Ocean coast. Other cities such as Reno, NV and Salt Lake City had their hottest July’s ever. Miami set an all-time record hottest month ever. Death Valley, CA took its wild heat to another level with an average July temperature of 107.4 degrees F making it the hottest month ever recorded in the United States historical record.

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-Arctic sea ice is headed for (yet again) one of its lowest extents in the observational record.

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-Boreal forests continue to burn at an unprecedented rate not seen in the past 10,000 yrs. Most notably significant fires have broken out in Canada and in the peat of the Arctic on the border of the ice sheet on Greenland.

I’ll write more about the IMPACTS of climate change…estimates of global and regional effects that I intended on writing about hopefully later this week in my regular post series. But in short…we really have no time to lose on this. Governments and citizens MUST do what they can…from individual efforts to industry…to get carbon emissions down. The more carbon dioxide goes into the atmosphere and higher temperatures rise, the greater the uncertainty as far as resulting phenomena such as climate feedbacks which could either hinder or enhance climate change, the latter of course worsening the situation faster. We as humans, we live our lives and we really have no idea how fragile how our world really is. We must realize how destructive a force we are so we can be constructive to ourselves and our world instead.

Tropical Storm Franklin moving over the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon

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Tropical Storm Franklin made landfall last night near Pulticub, Mexico at approximately 10:45 pm CDT with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph.  Since last night, the system has continued to move over land, remaining fairly well-organized but has weakened some thanks to land interaction with maximum sustained winds now down to 45 mph as of 10 am CDT. However, the National Hurricane Center in Miami anticipates re-strengthening after it enters the Bay of Campeche tonight. The waters in the Bay are piping HOT – 30-32 degrees C (88-90 degrees). These waters are fuel for robust intensification. With that said, northerly wind shear over the Bay is expected to impact Franklin during the day Wednesday as it heads for mainland Mexico, limiting rapid intensification. However, it could be a 70-75 mph tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane when it makes its expected landfall late Wed night/early Thursday morning. If Franklin becomes the first hurricane of the season tomorrow, it would do so around the climatological average time for the North Atlantic Basin (1966-2009) of August 10th. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch is in effect for the expected landfall region.

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After landfall, there is expected to be 8-12+ inches of rain over the mountainous terrain of Eastern Mexico. Flash flooding and life-threatening landslides are likely.

For those curious and who watch the tropics, you might have been tracking this system since it left West Africa last week.

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Models have continuously wanted to make something of it but of course as it goes, when it comes to tropical cyclones, until it actually develops, the evolution of the system is difficult for numerical models to pin down. This system is no different. However, the wave still has some cohesive structure and therefore potential in the next 5 days to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves east-northeastward over the open Atlantic. As long as computer models continue to give the wave an opportunity to develop, it is worth watching.

Heat wave hits Pacific NW this week; A look at Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Heat

If you live in Western Washington and like roasting near 100 degree temperatures, you are and will be getting your wish the next 72 hrs. As powerful upper-atmospheric ridge of high pressure is establishing itself over the West Coast of the US, the combination of clear skies and subsiding (downward moving as opposed to upward rising) air under this high pressure system – subsiding air warms as it sinks – is leading to incredible heat over the interior areas of Western WA/OR and Northern CA.

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Forecast surface temperatures at 5 pm PDT Thursday. Upper-90s near Seattle around 100 in Southwest WA, mid-100s in the Willamette Valley and and Medford, OR area. Eastern WA also hit hard with high heat. (Global Forecast System 11 am PDT Tuesday model run).
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Forecast upper-air map showing the atmospheric wave pattern on the 500 millibar pressure surface (approximately 18,000-18,500 ft over the US) on 11 am Thursday. I added text to show the locations of the ridge relative to its influence on the “extreme heat” (where it is producing 20-25 degree above normal temperatures) over the Pacific Northwest. (Global Forecast System computer 11 am Tuesday model run).

Extreme heat warnings have been issued for virtually ALL OF Washington State, Western Oregon, and much of Northern California.

Shown below are the average high temperatures for today (August 1st) for selected cities in Western WA/OR followed by forecast highs for today-Thurs or Fri. The forecast highs in red are highs which would break the record high for that day.

Seattle, WA-

Tues, August 1st Average High Temperature: 77

Forecast Highs (Tues-Fri): 87, 94, 98, 95

Olympia, WA (state capitol)-

Tues, August 1st Average High Temperature: 79

Forecast Highs (Tues-Fri): 92, 98, 103, 95

Portland, OR-

Tues, August 1st Average High Temperature: 82

Forecast High (Tues-Thurs): 99, 105, 105 (All-time record high is 107 from 1965/1981)

Salem, OR (state Capitol)-

Tues, August 1st Average High Temperature: 84

Forecast High (Tues-Thurs): 99, 106, 105 (All-time record high is 108 from ’27, ’41, ’81)

According to the 5 pm PDT observation, Salem has reached 100 degrees, exceeding their forecast temp and tying the daily record of 100 degrees for today.

Eugene, OR-

Tues, August 1st Average High Temperature: 84

Forecast High (Tues-Thurs): 99, 106, 103 (All-time record high is 108 from ’81)

Medford, OR- (edited at 10:40 pm CDT Tuesday to add this city)

Tues, August 1st Average High Temperature: 93

Forecast High (Tues-Thurs): 108, 114, 111 (All-time record high is 115 from ’46)

It’s very possible that for a portion of the Willamette Valley, especially the Central Willamette Valley, Wednesday could be one of the most intense heat days on record!

The worst of the heat for Western WA and Western OR is expected to end after Friday more seasonable to reasonable above normal temperatures this weekend.


One of the most significant impacts of human-induced Global Climate Change are the impact on heat waves. As the average temperature of Earth warms, many local temperature patterns are shifting toward temperatures which are “hot” to “extremely hot” relative to average temperatures in the mid-20th century (typically defined by their standard deviation from the mean temperature for the local area).

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These charts, based on data by NASA climate scientist James Hansen shows the strong deviation in in the bell curve for 2005-2015 local Northern Hemisphere temperatures relative to the same distribution of temperatures in 1951-1980. The trend has been to many more “extremely hot” temperatures and “hot” temperatures have become the new normal in the Northern Hemisphere on average. See full NY Times story HERE

This shift has had implications for impacts on everything from drought to human health such as heat-related illness and vector-borne illnesses. It will continue to do so as carbon dioxide levels continue to climb. The levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached a record in observed human history of ~410 parts per million in May of this year, the highest level in at least several million years (and humanity is pumping it into the atmosphere at a rate unseen in the past 65 million years).

At this time, global warming has reached approximately 1 degree C (nearly 2 degrees F) since the early modern Industrial Era (the 1880s). It is statistically known that heat waves, droughts and also heavy precipitation events (because of additional moisture added to a warmer atmosphere) are being impacted directly by climate change.

Tropical Storm Emily impacting much of Florida Monday

Tropical Storm Emily formed last night over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  An area of low pressure developed thunderstorm activity which managed to consolidate and organize as it approached the central gulf coast of Florida overnight. Meteorologists began to notice the increasing organization of the system on local radar and at 6 am EDT this morning, the National Hurricane Center in Miami declared the system “Emily”.

Regional radar showing huge rain extent associated with Emily near and south of the center.
Enhanced infrared image showing cloud temperatures of Emily. Coldest temps (reds) near center along central gulf coast.
 

As an upper atmospheric trough of low pressure digs southeastward from the upper-Midwest over the next 2-3 days, this is expected to steer Emily northeastward. It will move out of Florida by overnight tonight/early Tue and head off into the open waters of the Atlantic well-offshore the East Coast. Land interaction today will weaken it but it may regain some strength over the waters of the Gulf Stream mid-week.

Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics thus far this season: 5 named storms, 0 hurricanes, 0 major hurricanes. On July 31st, on average the Atlantic is expected (based on 1966-2009 data) to have observed only 1 named storm, 0 hurricanes, 0 major hurricanes (on Aug 1st, the average named storms increases to 2). As we go deeper into the month of August expect the hurricane numbers to go up thanks to favorable below average wind shear and above normal oceanic heat content currently in existence in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Tropical Atlantic. 


This area is largely turned off in earlier months but ramps ups later in the season as tropical waves develop from the tropics of West Africa and moves south and west of the Cape Verde Islands. So the Atlantic still has a lot left in the tank as far as heat energy to release.

Hilary and Irwin making plans for a Fujiwhara waltz over the open ocean

Let’s learn something cool about the tropics!

The past couple of weeks, the Eastern Pacific Basin has been quite active with multiple active tropical cyclones churning, dying and new ones forming. All while the North Atlantic Basin has been largely silent. We’ll get into the pattern set up for tropical activity between the two basins in the coming few weeks in a moment. But first, let’s discuss two interest systems in process in the EPac – Hilary and Irwin.

(Intensities are as of 4 pm CDT Thurs)

Hurricane Hilary is currently a Category 1 with max winds of 75 mph moving to the west-northwest. Meanwhile, ~480 nautical miles southwest of Hilary is Tropical Storm Irwin. It has max winds of 60 mph and drifting westward. Neither system is a threat to populated land masses and both are quickly heading for cooler waters north of the subtropical Pacific, where much drier air also exists in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Both will lead to rapid deterioration of the cyclones this weekend.

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Visible satellite image showing Tropical Storm Irwin and Hurricane Hilary in close proximity at 4 pm CDT July 27, 2017. Cooler waters are noted to the north producing stable air mass near the sea surface, including deep marine stratus clouds and “closed cell” cumulus cloud deck. Stable air mass is non-conducive for thunderstorms hurricanes need to sustain themselves.
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Same image at same time as above in the “water vapor” infrared channel, where mid-level water vapor is detected. The circled area is a fairly dry area where air is experiencing sinking motions, coinciding with the cooler surface waters and the lack of thunderstorm activity for deep atmospheric moisture. Deep dry air can disrupt thunderstorm activity in tropical cyclones and weaken them.

Later Sunday and into Monday, an amazing phenomenon is expected to occur. Because of the very close proximity of Hilary and Irwin – only several hundred miles apart – the two cyclones are expected to undergo a Fujiwhara Interaction. This describes when two vortices in close proximity begin to rotate around a common center or one around another if one is more dominant. It is named after the Japanese meteorologist Sakuhei Fujiwhara who first described the interaction scientifically in a 1921 paper.

It does not happen very often, but it is typically more common in the Western Pacific basin where a very large surface area of favorable tropical development and maintenance exists and many cyclones can develop simultaneously and sometimes in close proximity.

Numerical models have shown the possible interaction for days.

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The slideshow above displays the Hurricane Weather Research & Forecasting Model forecast initialized at 11 pm PDT Wednesday with the forecast valid 5 pm PDT Sunday – 11 am PDT Monday. This model is “nested” on Hilary to show its evolution (the colors are surface temperatures in degrees C and wind barbs are in knots). However, you can see Irwin orbiting around it on its south and east sides Sunday evening – Monday morning. Irwin will likely weaken and die (along with Hilary, not long after), or will become absorbed by Hilary.

Nature never ceases to amazes in what it can do with the laws of physics!