You may remember I posted last Friday about the major North Atlantic storm which was expected to move into the Arctic Ocean Sunday and Monday producing hurricane-force winds, 30 ft+ waves and temperatures over 40 degrees F above normal (near or even above freezing in places). Well that storm advanced through the Arctic and now noticeable effects can be seen (via satellite analysis) on sea ice concentration (amount of ice vs. open water in a given area) and on sea ice sheet growth and resulting extent.
Included are two images of the sea ice concentration…one I saved from the February 3rd, another just posted for February 6th. Lighter blues are for 90-95% concentration, with yellows and reds being for 75-90%.
Extent growth basically stopped between February 3-6 (near 13,300,000 sq km for four days).
More very above normal temperatures will hit the Arctic this weekend as a powerful blocking high pressure system over the Pacific (sound familiar…) raises temps once again across Alaska and allows storm tracks to head for the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea once again. Meanwhile, the Atlantic side will continue to remain “open” with another storm also moving into the region this weekend. No storm appears to be nearly as powerful as the Sunday-Monday event, but the litany of systems bringing at least some wind, wave action and temps not far below the freezing point of salt water is no good for the Arctic.
Arctic sea ice is extremely important for everything from Arctic regional ecology, marine biology to effects on overall warming of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding land areas (and permafrost). There is also evidence that the rapid warming of the Arctic because of anthropogenic climate change is altering the polar jet stream circulation which may be leading to an increased frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events.
This winter has been a fascinating one to say the least. Wild oscillations between very abnormally warm and very abnormally cold while other places are are just consistently very warm. Or perhaps just very dry. Much of this has been thanks to the current La Nina pattern in place over the Tropical Pacific. The atmospheric pattern leading to abnormally cooler waters over the eastern tropical region also lead to the promotion of strong high pressure systems over the Central North Pacific with unusually higher amplitude jet streams. This favors a polar jet aiming for the Pacific Northwest, northern tier and into the northeastern third of the country while the Southwest and Sunbelt see drier conditions.
Meanwhile, significant Arctic intrusions have been impacting the US, particularly in January and more appear likely in February as “teleconnections”…patterns in global circulation which give clues toward a general weather regime for a region of the world…show signs of further intense extreme jet stream amplitudes with very strong upper-level high pressure systems blocking storm tracks over the north Pacific and Bering Sea, which downstream will mean a cross polar flow in the upper atmosphere of very cold air upper troughs and surface Arctic fronts and high pressure systems over northern Plains/Midwest into the Northeast US. The Deep South should escape as warmer air from the subtropics attempts to advance north and may keep the Arctic air at bay. Europe looks to also have periods of similar cold (and interior Siberia of course! Check out the incredible cold they had last month).
Powerful Arctic Ocean Storm Sunday-Tuesday
While the mid-latitudes get hit with Arctic cold, the Arctic is being pounded by significant amounts of mid-latitude heat. And now the computer models are pointing towards a major North Atlantic storm developing early this weekend, moving over Greenland and then into the middle of the Arctic Ocean Sunday night-Monday. This storm will be very powerful…as strong as any classic North Atlantic ocean winter storm, and will bring significant amounts of high winds, battering waves and high “heat” to the Arctic. How warm? Perhaps as warm as 50-60 degrees F above normal temperatures over much of the Arctic Ocean. This will mean highs near or just above freezing up to the North Pole!
This storm is forecast to initially form southwest of the tip of Greenland and east of Quebec Friday and will beginning moving over Greenland Saturday. Sunday, the system will begin to impact the Arctic, with warm and moisture transport from the North Atlantic (all the way from the Azores!) increasing abruptly late-Sunday. By Monday morning, models indicate waves moving up the Fram Strait toward the Arctic may be as high as 30 ft in strong south-southwesterly flow. Over the sea ice sheet, the low pressure system will be intense as it emerges from Greenland…possibly sub-960 millibars with widespread wind gusts of up to hurricane-force likely over much of the interior Arctic Ocean east and south of the low on the Atlantic side.
Why this storm is so significant is because the Arctic sea ice is continuing to undergo collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. If the Arctic climate warms to the point that it simply cannot support sea ice in the warm season, with the Arctic Ocean warming as a result of very low albedo (reflectivity to visible light which would otherwise limit warming) compared to white ice (or latent heat of melting/freezing, instead of heat going into warming the ocean directly), this will have dramatic effects on not only regional climate but global climate (I can go into greater details in this in the comments or provide resources). Generally this was something expected much later in the future, but may occur earlier than expected, although it is difficult to predict when exactly this will occur as it would be nonlinear and abrupt. However, as mentioned, ice volume and extent for ice are running at record or near record lows across the Arctic Basin. Some of these effects on albedo and heating have already begun to be felt over the past several years on the marginal seas which are beginning to become increasingly ice free during the warm season (Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea, Eastern Siberian Sea), but it’s important to not have the interior Arctic Ocean lose significant ice. Particularly in the winter, but it has been struggling just to freeze this winter! For more on recent sea ice developments see these videos by Paul Beckwith (M.Sc, PhD candidate; HERE and HERE).
In the meantime, while we have year to year variability…various teleconnection patterns, anthropogenic forcing (CO2, other gasses) is the most dominant regime on our climate and so even while I must emphasize weather is not climate…I must also emphasize that climate is a statistical distribution of weather events; and so extreme weather events which are increasing in frequency and magnitude are a sign of our climate shifting to more extreme conditions and in sensitive places (particularly cold climates like the Arctic), those shifts are incredibly noticeable.
The 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane season was a devastating one in terms of loss of life as well as property damage for the United States and the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center released its post-season report on Harvey which caused great destruction to parts of Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana. What follows is a brief summary and discussion of Harvey based on info from that report as well as other sources related to Harvey’s impacts. The full report is linked at the end of this post in the references.
What became Harvey was originally a tropical disturbance which came off the West Coast of Africa on August 12th. It is common during August and September for land-based thunderstorm complexes known as mesoscale convective systems to move westward off the African coast near or south of the Cape Verde (also known as the Cabo Verde) Islands and later develop into long-lived tropical cyclones. Harvey was a classic “cape-verde” type storm as it would later develop into a tropical depression with a well-defined center on August 16th.
The depression intensified into a storm and given its name 12 hrs after initial development. It peaked over the open Atlantic at 40 knots (~45 mph), moving over the islands of Barbados and St. Vincent on August 18th. However, increasing vertical wind shear (increasing winds with height tilting and blowing the thunderstorms away from the low pressure center) over the central Caribbean Sea lead to Harvey’s dissipation to a remnant low later that day.
The remnant circulation moved over the Yucatan Peninsula on Aug 22nd and redeveloped into a tropical depression over Bay of Campeche on August 23rd, 150 n mi west of Progreso, Yucatan, Mexico.
The initially poor organization of the reformed Harvey transitioned to a period of rapid intensification late on the 23rd as deep convection began to concentrate near the center. This was aided by an environment of light shear, very warm sea surface temperatures and high mid-level moisture. Intensification would continue until landfall on the 26th. Harvey reached Category 3 midday on the 25th and intensified into a Category 4 as it made its landfalls on the Texas coast early August 26th (the evening of the 25th local time). The initial landfall was on San Jose Island, TX as a Category 4 with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (115 knots) with a second landfall on mainland Texas in northeast Copano Bay as a Category 3 with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (105 knots). Wind damage was extreme and devastating in Aransas, Nueces, Refugio and the eastern part of San Patricio Counties. 15,000 homes were destroyed and 25,000 homes damaged. The City of Rockport was hit the hardest as the Category 3+ wind field moved into that area causing both extensive wind and surge impacts. The highest surge observed in Harvey was generally in the range of 9-11 ft.
Harvey meandered in light steering currents, “stuck” between a mid-tropospheric high pressure system over the Four Corners states and another mid-troposphere high over the Gulf of Mexico. Torrential rains fell over Houston Metro and the Golden Triangle near a stationary front which formed on the north and east side of Harvey.
The rainfall of Harvey was truly incredible. A storm total of 60.58 inches was confirmed Nederland, TX; 60.54 inches in Groves, TX. Much of the heaviest precipitation fell in the first 72 hrs of the event. Previous continental US record for a tropical cyclone is 48 inches in Medina, TX (1978). The extreme nature of Harvey was displayed in that 18 values over that continental record of 48 inches reported across southeastern TX, with 36-48 inches recorded across the Houston metro area. However, Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimates (MPE), which includes radar-derived rainfall intensity estimates suggests 65-70 inches where few observations were available or observations failed early in the event. Maximum rainfall measured in Louisiana was 23.71 inches in Vinton, LA, with MPE suggesting a more representative 40 inches as Southeast Southwest LA obs were sparse.
The large-scale or synoptic set up for the Harvey exceptional rainfall event is not particularly unique. Heavy rain bands formed along a modest frontal boundary situated initially near Houston, then the Golden Triangle region in Southeast TX (Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, TX area). Enhanced convergence and convective lift with warm cloud droplet precipitation processes allowed for enhanced rainfall rates in abundant thunderstorms. The combination of extremely high rainfall rates of up to 5-7 inches per hour and the stationary nature of the near coastal frontal boundary and Harvey itself contributed to the extreme total accumulation and massive flooding.
NOAA analysis determined that areas of Southeast TX experience a flood with an annual probability of <0.1% (equivalent to a >1000 year flood event). I believe this is one of the most important parts of the National Hurricane Center report, so I’ll quote it:
While established records of this nature are not kept, given the exceptional exceedance probabilities, it is unlikely the United States has ever seen such a sizable area of excessive tropical cyclone rainfall totals as it did from Harvey.
In addition to storm surge, wind and flooding rains, Harvey produced 57 tornadoes (many in the Houston Metro area) and killed 68 people directly with an additional 35 indirect deaths. All direct deaths were in Texas and it was the deadliest tropical cyclone for Texas since 1919. All but three direct deaths were caused by freshwater flooding.
According to NOAA, preliminary damage analysis suggests estimated damages of $125 billion, making Harvey the second-costliest hurricane on record in the North Atlantic basin, only behind Hurricane Katrina, when adjusted for inflation.
Connection to Anthropogenic (human-caused) Climate Change
During and immediately following the events of Hurricane Harvey, there was intense controversy over even discussing climate change as it related to the extreme events related to Hurricane Harvey. Even mentioning climate change in reference to an individual extreme weather event. A lot of opinions were thrown about, but the science of climate change has evolved dramatically in the past 10 years and climate researchers have a much better understanding of many of the connections between climate variables and the statistics of weather which make up the recent past and current climate. From this, attribution studies can be conducted to determine a likelihood of connection to the changing climate regime. A attribution study was done by World Weather Attribution (#2 below) and the probabilistic statistical analysis determined that the record rainfall from Harvey was approximately a) 3 times more likely and b) 15% more intense in terms of rainfall rate because of climate change. One location witnessed a return period for extreme rainfall of 9000 years with a high degree of statistical confidence. The impacts were consistent with what would be expected with 1 degree C+ of global warming since the late 19th century (the world has thought to have begun warming because of humanity since the mid 18th century). I did an extensive post previously during this most recent hurricane season on the climate change connection with includes references to numerous recent peer reviewed papers HERE.
After periods of very abnormally warm weather, surges of very cold air from the Arctic will be barreling out of Canada starting Thursday into next week.
These cold surges are a result of a highly amplified jet stream which has been shifting around North America for the past few weeks with a strong ridge over the Western US and trough over the US. However, the ridge is retreating over the Eastern Pacific and intensifying into Alaska, heating up the Arctic and putting southern Canada and the US in the ice box.
The Storm Prediction Center does have a marginal risk of severe weather ahead of this week’s major frontal system over Southeast TX Friday. The risk appears to be for a isolated severe thunderstorm wind gusts over 60 mph and low risks of tornadoes.
Here in the land of the corn? We should peak in the upper-30s tomorrow morning and then have falling temperatures and increasing winds during the afternoon with freezing drizzle with increasing breezy conditions out of the northwest. Not much snow accumulation expected here, although it could get slick from some of the freezing precipitation. Anyone else in the middle of the country, be careful as the cold air moves in if you’re on the roads!
Quick update on the Thomas Fire in California:
As of this post, the fire burned 272,000 acres…the 2nd largest in California state history (within less than 1500 acres of the state record). It has killed two people, including a firefighter. It is 60% contained. It began December 4th.
No significant rainfall is expected is expected in Southern California through the end of the month based on computer models. The Eastern Pacific ridge of high pressure seems to have a dominant grip on the region unfortunately. A combination of a La Nina pattern and climate change-induced extremely low Arctic sea ice and warm Arctic causing an incredibly amplified jet stream which tends to produce “stuck” and “stale” patterns.
We can only wait and see if the lack of rain and snow forecast in the models in fact verifies for the Southwest US.
A major weather pattern shift will be occur next week for North America into the Arctic as the jet stream…which already has been largely higher in amplitude and experiencing some blocking with little eastward progression of long-waves in the upper-atmosphere, will becoming extremely amplified (north-south) next week bringing very warm air up into Alaska, Yukon and the Arctic Ocean and a modified Arctic air mass from Nunavut and the Northwest Territories of Canada into the central US. Let’s take a look at things.
The current pattern dominating North America has been strong ridge of high pressure over the Western US or Eastern Pacific with a prominent trough over the eastern US with some fluctuation in the wave pattern east or west, but not much significant change, except in the center of the country which has seen more significant swings between these two states. The east, including even the Southeast saw significant snow. The west has seen abnormal warmth with record fires in California. Currently the ridge of upper-atmosphere ridge is forecast by US and European models to build to an extremely high amplitude the end of next week north over portions of Alaska and Yukon and into the margins of the Arctic Ocean. This as a very intense trough is forced south over the US.
This extreme amplification will drive an Arctic surface air high pressure system out of the Northwest Territories with very cold air this week, with this air mass advancing into the US beginning Thursday into this weekend. Meanwhile stormier conditions will moving from the Bering Sea into the Chukchi Sea driving up temperatures in the far north. And California with all the fires? Remains abnormally warm and dry.
As I spoke about in a previous post, the Arctic is having its second warmest year on record and lowest annual sea ice volume on record as climate change continues to abnormally warm the Arctic. The highly amplified wave pattern is much a product of the current weak La Nina pattern. However, the intensity of the amplification and resulting amplified warming of the Arctic is also a function of the long-term global warming regime dominating the polar region and causing record warmth and reductions in sea ice. I noticed this amplified wave pattern will have interesting impacts on the Arctic weather pattern and possibly the tenuous sea ice beginning next week.
Right now, a prominent surface high pressure region…associated with the Beaufort Gyre…is over the Arctic Ocean north of Alaska and eastern Siberia. By the middle of next week, this gyre will weaken as strong low pressure systems approach the Arctic from both the Bering Sea and the far North Atlantic.
The Gyre is vulnerable because of the areas of open water and tenuous sea ice which remains over the Chukchi Sea…record low extent for this time of year. The ice being cold creates the surface high pressure system and clockwise circulation. But last year, this gyre collapsed because of slow sea ice growth allowing for storms with warm, moist air to move into the Arctic and further slowed sea ice growth. It appears this may be forecast to happen again during the tail end of this month.
Depending on the strength of the low pressure systems, not only will the tenuous sea ice in the Arctic…widespread areas 1.5 meters or less in thickness (less than a meter in the Chukchi Sea)…deal with more warm air temperatures limiting sea ice growth, but also wave action which may destroy the ice, particularly from the Pacific side as cyclones are expected to move across the Arctic from the Pacific. We’ll see how much impact those storms have and how intense they are. If the upper-level wave pattern is as amplified as forecast by models 5-8 days out (no reason to think otherwise as he reach the point of good reliability for the upper-atmosphere), it’s a good set up for strong low pressure systems to develop in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic. And with the highly amplified blocking high over the Eastern Pacific, storms will be forced to track into Alaska and into the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas and deep Arctic Ocean.
I thought now would be a good time to update on my life as some big changes are ahead. My fiance, son and I will be moving to St. Cloud, MN at the beginning of January. I’ve been accepted into the Geographic Information Science master’s program at St. Cloud State University. GISci is the study of the theory and applications of geographic information systems (hardware and software apps) for collecting, storing, and manipulating location data for visualization, analysis and modeling. I will be pursuing a second master’s degree (first is in Geosciences – Applied Meteorology from Mississippi State in 2016).
Our primary reason to move is to be closer to my side of the family. My Mom, grandparents and many cousins all live in the Minneapolis Metro area. St. Cloud is less than a hour away from where many of them live. However, I decided after much thought, to return to school for GIS because I’ve had a lot of interest in the technology and applications of it since I was a meteorology/climatology major at the University of Nebraska and there are many career opportunities for those with expertise in the technology and theory of it in many fields. Meteorology is *much* harder to get into (which I knew going in), and while I certainly am open to meteorology and experience (more on that in a bit), I want to gain much greater knowledge in a highly valued field. I’ve taken a few GIS and cartography courses as an undergrad and required intro course as a graduate student, but there is much left for me to learn which could go a long way toward career prospects. I’m doing the thesis-track option (my first masters was non-thesis), but I’m still formulating details on what I want to research, beyond ideas I briefly discussed in my graduate statement of intent.
On another note, for the 2nd year, I’ll be doing online mountain weather forecasting for the Fire Weather & Avalanche Center, based in northeast Oregon. The FWAC is a non-profit organization which does forecasting (mostly volunteer) for fire weather and snowfall and avalanche hazards, focused on northeast Oregon, although weather is discussed throughout the Pacific Northwest. The focus in particular is on back country recreation and travel. I will begin my weekly Saturday and Sunday 48 hr forecast shifts this weekend through this winter. Again, mostly volunteer, but valuable experience which regularly utilizes my skills as a forecaster. I’m hoping to have involvement in the fire weather operations next year. In the meantime, look for links to my Oregon mountain forecasts for the FWAC posted on my Twitter and Facebook feeds as they are written. The interactive mountain weather forecast page is HERE.
It will be a busy couple of months, but the changes should be very positive!
Hurricane Ophelia set two records: 1) The highest latitude major hurricane on record in the North Atlantic Basin, set beginning at 35.9 N and 2) the most easterly major hurricane on record in the basin, set beginning at 26.6W. It will likely weaken below major hurricane force by Sunday morning as it begins to undergo transition into a frontal cyclone from its interaction with the jet stream and further reduction of sea surface temperatures below 72 degrees F/22 degrees C. However, it will be one for the record books.
Fortunately, Ireland and the United Kingdom will not need to worry about a major hurricane hitting them. They will need to worry about a likely damaging windstorm from a post-tropical hybrid cyclone. The post-tropical incarnation will develop frontal characteristics as it initially weakens, but its strong inner warm-core will continue to release some heat into the system, re-intensifying it as it becomes fully embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and races into Ireland and the UK Monday afternoon and evening. My updated forecast for Ireland is below. Still expecting winds capable of downing trees and causing major power disruptions. The forecast for intense winds is high in confidence as computer models hone in on the center of the storm either coming ashore the southern tip of Ireland or just grazing the western shore. This is favorable for a “big blow” over the entire island. Residents need to be prepared to stay indoors and stay safe during the day Monday.
Ireland Forecast for Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia:
Monday Morning (After 7 am local time): For the southern half of the island, wind gusts of 40-50 mph (64-80 km/h) will develop during the morning, increasing to 60-85 mph (97-137 km/h) by mid to late morning from the coast, northward. The strongest gusts will be along the coastal areas, especially the south shores where isolated gusts may approach 100 mph (161 km/h). For the northern half of the island, wind gusts to 40 mph will develop mid morning , increasing to 50-60 mph late morning, from south to north.
Monday Afternoon (After noon): For the south, wind gusts of 60-85 mph (97-137 km/h) early afternoon with isolated to 100 mph/161 km/h along the south/southeast shores). For the north, wind gusts of 50-60 mph (80-97 km/h) early afternoon will increase to 60-85 mph by mid afternoon with isolated gusts to 100 mph along the northeast shores, spreading from south to north into the late afternoon.
Monday Night (after 5 pm local time): For the south, wind gusts will gradually decrease to 40-55 mph (64-89 km/h) during the early evening from south to north. For the north, wind gusts will gradually decrease to 40-55 mph during the mid to late evening (after 7 pm) from south to north.
Sea conditions will be hazardous all around Ireland with wind gusts in excess of 100 mph (161 km/h) likely in the south coastal waters and in the Irish Sea.