As of now (5:30 pm PDT), the death toll in the California Wildfires is up to 35 and is expected to go up further. 18 in Sonoma County, 9 in Mendocino County, 4 in Yuba County and 4 in Napa County. 5700 structures have been destroyed and 221,000 acres have been burned. Treating the conglomeration of fires as a single event (as all the Northern CA ones initiated Sunday Night), this is by far the most destructive fire event in state history and one of the deadliest. Simply horrifying and very sad.
Firefighters have begun to have some containment success the past 48 hrs with slower winds and at least some periods of slightly improved humidity. However, tonight-Sunday morning will feature an intensification of extreme fire danger. This is because a strong surface high pressure system will advance toward the central Intermountain West this weekend, intensifying downsloping Diablo winds from the hilly and foothill mountainous terrain of Northern California. North-northeast winds may gust as high as 45-60 mph Saturday, inducing very low humidity values, drying out fuels and potentially promoting extreme fire behavior (high forward speed, rapid growth) in existing fires as well as any new fires. Red Flag Warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service to cover this forecast potential.
There are no thunderstorms forecast, so any new fires would be likely started by human activity. So folks in these areas need to very much be careful with anything which can potentially start fire and really…just avoid starting any outdoor fire or using anything which sparks.
Some good news…mid-range computer model forecasts suggest a pattern shift toward precipitation and cooler weather by the end of next week. Just have to get through the next week of fire activity before some meaningful hydrologic relief to aid the firefighting efforts.
The fire conditions Wed Night into this morning were not as severe as expected thanks to weaker winds. This allowed firefighters to make some ground against fires through the night, however high fire danger remains and will continue for days into the future, with no rain in sight.
Air quality remains terrible in the Bay Area. Folks in that region should do what they can to avoid being outside if at all possible.
I’ll add any additional updates related to fires on this post today. Stay safe in these areas!
The new geostationary weather satellite, GOES-16 captured this high spatio-temporal resolution loop of the smoke plume over the Bay Area of Northern California this evening before sunset. The deep smoke is embedded in the low-level north winds, while the white, high cirrus clouds are in southwesterly flow. You can right click to save or open in the new tab to see the larger version of it. It’s amazing but frightening to know what’s happening under all that smoke.
The Wine Country Fires in Northern California have now destroyed over 3500 structures, making it the most destructive fire event in state history. And with 23 deaths now reported, it is quickly approaching the record for the deadliest. There are still areas burned where police have yet to search for potential victims because the primary operations are focused on evacuations and maintaining safety in the current fluid situation. Unfortunately, given that the missing persons are over 280, even with many being found safe, the death toll is still likely to go up as some are found.
Amazing the disturbing level of destruction of this fire event. I was only 7 yrs old in 1991, but I remember the Oakland Hills Firestorm, as it was plastered all over the news as much as this event. I didn’t think I could imagine such a disastrous fire worse than that.
Update at 5:30 pm PDT Wed: Update on the Meteorological Conditions in the Bay Area/Napa Valley Region.
Numerous fires continue to largely out of control over the Napa Valley/North Bay region. Heavy Smoke (with particulate matter >2.5 micrometers) is spreading southward over the Greater Bay Area reducing visibility and causing air quality to be considered very unhealthy for all individuals in the region with VERY UNHEALTHY conditions in the hilly terrain east of Santa Rosa and Oakland. If you can stay indoors, do so, especially for the young, elderly, and those with chronic breathing problems.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF N. AND C. CALIFORNIA FROM NOW UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. As high pressure builds across Oregon into NE. Nevada, easterly downsloping winds will intensify the foothills across the interior of Northern CA, increasing the threat for any fires which develop to spread quickly and existing fires to expand acreage quickly. These winds will help maintain very conditions longer into the night, slowing humidity recovery and allowing fires to potentially exhibit extreme behavior (heat, forward speed, self-maintenance). Winds may gust up to 45-50 mph in some areas.
These fires have largely been a result of 1) the 5 yr extreme drought weakening trees 2) the very wet winter producing abundant brush growth 3) extreme hot, dry summer drying out all fuels.
New evacuation orders have already come out for some areas, including the City of Calistoga (northeast of Santa Rosa) where the entire town of over 5,000 are being told to leave. See the Impact Statement at the bottom of this post…but folks need to be ready to evacuate if necessary at a moment’s notice.
–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey
CalFire has updated news at 11:30 am PDT and now say 21 people have been confirmed killed and 172,000 acres have now burned across the entire state. The most destructive fires are in North-Central California north of the Bay Area, but the Canyon 2 Fire continues to menace Anaheim in Southern California.
A RED FLAG WARNING is in effect for much of the interior valleys and foothill terrain of California.
This is for extreme fire danger today – Thursday. As high pressure builds this evening and tonight over Nevada and east of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, a NE-SW pressure gradient will intensify, leading to strong downslope winds known as Diablo winds or Santa Ana Winds (the former in Northern CA, the latter in Southern CA). These winds will gust potentially 40-45 mph+. In addition, because they are downsloping, the air undergoes adiabatic warming…warming caused by the air compressing as it flows down toward higher vertical pressure at lower elevations. The air not only warms, but also dries out, turning winds blasting out of canyons into a hot blow dryer…drying out fuels and allowing a fire to turn into a firestorm.
I CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH…if you live in areas under the red flag warning or if you know anyone who lives in these areas, especially near the urban-wildland interface…please have a plan of what to do if a mandatory evacuation is ordered for your area and have a way to get warnings. ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. Stay in contact with friends/relatives, have someone stay up to watch tv or listen to radio, keep your phone on and charged, have a weather radio. Most importantly, make sure those smoke detectors are working as they may be a final warning of danger impacting your home at night. These fires may intensify or new ones may start Wed night-Thurs morning because of strengthening winds and the humidity…which normally increases at night…may not do so because of the very dry nature of the winds. This will allow for potentially explosive fire behavior. And please, be smart with anything related to flammable materials and clear any brush away from your home if possible, to give you more time if a fire does approach.
I really hope the situation does not worsen significantly. Fires are scary events and incredibly destructive. Please be safe and be ready if you are in these areas.
I’ll have updates on this page throughout today and tonight.
The Northern California wildfires continue to rage and risk both lives and property. At least fifteen fires are currently burning across Northern California with little to no containment. The most significant fires include the Atlas Fire, Tubbs Fire, the Cascade Fire, Nuns Fire, and the Redwood Complex Fire. As of 8 pm PDT, there have been 17 deaths reported (11 in Sonoma, 2 in Napa, 3 in Mendocino and 1 in Yuba Counties). 180 people have been reported missing in Sonoma County with 57 out of originally 240 reported missing found since yesterday. More than 2,000 structures have been destroyed. 115,000+ acres have been burned with many fires at 0% containment.
Today, the atmospheric conditions were initially better for fighting fires this morning with higher humidity values and low winds. Winds have remained lighter today compared to previous days, but humidity has once again dropped this afternoon below 30% or even 20% in many areas in the hilly elevated terrain down into Napa Valley, allowing fires to continue to steadily spread.
I wish there was more good news to give to the folks in NorCal, but unfortunately, NO rain is forecast for the region for the next seven days. In addition, the National Weather Service issued a RED FLAG WARNING for Wed Night-Thurs Afternoon as high easterly winds blowing out of the hilly terrain will produce very low humidity, allowing for potentially explosive wildfire growth.
If you know anyone in or near the effected region (or in the RED FLAG WARNING areas), tell them to make sure they clear vegetation near their homes/businesses and have an emergency plan in case evacuations are issued for their area. Unfortunately, this wildfire disaster is ongoing and requires those who are in or near rural country to be ready to escape at a moment’s notice.
Sunday Night, major fires erupted in California’s Napa Valley under strong easterly winds and low relative humidity. This resulted in a conflagration engulfing communities and homes in flames and forcing thousands to make quick escapes in the early morning hours. One of the worse hit communities is Santa Rosa, where much of the city has been destroyed by fire. Over 1500 homes and businesses are believed to have been burned down in the Napa Valley region. The flames continue to grow at this time with over 75,000 acres burned.
Photos via the San Francisco Chronicle.
The fires are occurring in a region which is currently not in drought conditions hydrologically (as of last Thursday). However, after an unusually wet winter, an unusually hot, dry season followed. This allowed fuels, which grew in abundance following the wet season to dry out, leading to the massive fires in CA in this summer going into the Fall. Much of Western North America has been suffering significant fires in 2017 (year-to-date acreage burned in the US, as of Friday, was 3rd to 2012 and 2015). Intensifying wildfire seasons (on regional/continental scales) and increasing frequency of large fluctuations in extremes between very wet and very dry periods are predicted signals of climate change from global warming as well.
So far the fires have killed 10 people (as of 10 pm PDT Monday Night), while more than 110 have been injured, some severely from burns, most from smoke inhalation. It’s being reported Monday Night that 100 missing persons reports have been called in to the Sonoma County, CA office.
Although relative humidity conditions will improve somewhat tomorrow, no rainfall is forecast for this region of Northern California for the next 7 days to dampen the fire situation. Winds Tuesday will likely gust over 20 mph and may be locally stronger near the fire, continuing the self-sustaining burn.
Nearly 14% of the Continental US is in at least moderate drought conditions right now. The most highly afflicted areas are over the northern tier states west of the Mississippi River…the Dakotas, Montana, Idaho, Washington and Oregon.
There are scattered areas of drought and abnormally dry conditions across other parts of the country. However, an isolated area of severe to extreme drought has been hitting south-central Iowa for much of the summer and there are also areas of moderate drought developing over the the Desert Southwest and eastern Maine.
Weather patterns common during La Nina events include abnormally wet, cool conditions in the western Pacific Northwest and TN/OH valleys, but abnormally dry and warm conditions across the southern tier of the United States. This is partially incorporated into the monthly and seasonal drought and temperature/precipitation outlooks.
For those curious, the climate models are showing the US having a more than likely above normal winter throughout (including AK) with the La Nina-like distribution of precipitation (likely above normal Northwest, below normal Southeast). More on winter as we get closer.
*-I incorrectly stated that total acres burned in the US was around 3 million acres. (10/4/17)