2016 State of the Climate: The Sobering Data

Today The American Meteorological Society, in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their yearly peer-reviewed “State of the Climate” report detailing the state of the global climate. It is…not positive at all.

You can see the full report HERE. But here are the bullet points:

-The report confirms, via independent datasets that 2016 was the warmest year on record for human observations (most world observations go back to mid-1800s). Not only for Earth’s atmosphere but for the Earth’s oceans.

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-The Earth’s surface averaged 1.06-1.21 degrees C above pre-industrial levels (depending on datasets available). It is the second year in a row the global land and ocean temperature averaged over 1 degree C. The “danger” zone for destructive impacts on human society and ecosystems around the world according to climate scientists is 2 degrees C or higher. Even 1.5 C would begin to have very hazardous impacts.

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-Global carbon dioxide concentration in Earth’s atmosphere (the main greenhouse gas being added by human activity) exceeded 400 part per million on average for the first time ever in human history. Not only that…This is the highest level in Earth’s atmosphere in at least 800,000 years based on data taken from ice cores. For comparison, pre-industrial levels of carbon dioxide concentration was approximately 280 ppm (only 150 yrs ago).

-The increase in the yearly average of carbon dioxide by 3.5 ppm from 2015 to 2016 is the largest increase observed in the 58 year history of observations.

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-2016 featured significant portions of land areas suffering from “extreme heat”…heat above the 90 percentile compared to the 1961-1990 average temperature for the location.

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-2016 was the warmest year on record for the ocean, causing major stresses for ocean ecosystems, including coral reefs. Over 90% of global warming heating goes into the oceans (100+ zetajoules (1 x 10^23 joules) since 1993…it takes ~4 joules of heat to warm 1 gram of water by 1 degree C…it takes A LOT of energy to raise the temperature of water).

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-Sea levels are rising nearly everywhere, at different rates. Added water and thermal expansion by the heating of water are both factors. This is the 6th consecutive year of increase.

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-Severe drought impacted at least 12% of the planet’s land area each month of 2016 for the first time in history. (Note: The drought conditions in the Amazon Rain Forest in 2015-16 the third “100-year” event since 2005 with previous events in 2005 and 2010).

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-Arctic sea ice had its lowest winter maximum on record and second lowest summer minimum on record in 2016. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has ice up to 110,000 yrs old and has the ability to contribute to up to 7 meters sea-level rise is at a record low value.

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-2016 was the 37th consecutive year of worldwide Alpine glacial retreat.

-Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover was the 4th least extensive in the 47-yr record.

-Record high temperatures at 20 meters were observed at depth in permafrost observatories in Alaska and Canada.

-The United States had the 2nd warmest year on record in 2016 and the 20th consecutive warmer than normal year.


It’s interesting that this came out today because I was actually just beginning to write the draft to the next in the series of WxClimoEd “Understanding Global Climate Change“. But then this blew up my Twitter LOL. This pretty much gives me a good addition to what I would’ve discussed anyways. So let’s do just that…

It appears to me that we have crossed in the 2015-2017 period some crucial thresholds in the “era” of anthropogenic climate change. We are continuing to pump more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than Earth can remove through natural processes. We are essentially heavily polluting our atmosphere with CO2. Earth itself appears to have become a “1 degree C” world in terms of average temperature and major impacts expected to develop as a result. In addition, while our atmosphere is heating up, our oceans are also taking in incredible amounts of energy, slowly heating up and it’s quite literally cooking our marine life, all while the oceans undergo acidification from the CO2 they are taking in which is also causing harm to ecosystems. Coral reefs are facing this head on along with hundreds of thousands of species with depend on them. This is discussed is in the documentary Chasing Coral, which I reviewed HERE.

This year…2017…continues to see further signs of major problems which were predicted to be likely results of climate change.

-The first six months of 2017 (January-June) was the second warmest on record behind 2016. It is also the second warmest on record for the United States.

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-July saw record heat for the Western US and Alaska including record July or all-time record maximum monthly temps and sea ice within range of the Arctic Ocean coast. Other cities such as Reno, NV and Salt Lake City had their hottest July’s ever. Miami set an all-time record hottest month ever. Death Valley, CA took its wild heat to another level with an average July temperature of 107.4 degrees F making it the hottest month ever recorded in the United States historical record.

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-Arctic sea ice is headed for (yet again) one of its lowest extents in the observational record.

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-Boreal forests continue to burn at an unprecedented rate not seen in the past 10,000 yrs. Most notably significant fires have broken out in Canada and in the peat of the Arctic on the border of the ice sheet on Greenland.

I’ll write more about the IMPACTS of climate change…estimates of global and regional effects that I intended on writing about hopefully later this week in my regular post series. But in short…we really have no time to lose on this. Governments and citizens MUST do what they can…from individual efforts to industry…to get carbon emissions down. The more carbon dioxide goes into the atmosphere and higher temperatures rise, the greater the uncertainty as far as resulting phenomena such as climate feedbacks which could either hinder or enhance climate change, the latter of course worsening the situation faster. We as humans, we live our lives and we really have no idea how fragile how our world really is. We must realize how destructive a force we are so we can be constructive to ourselves and our world instead.

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Is it a Heat Wave or a BBQ Pit? Fires Add Smoke to the Misery

It was VERY smoky in the Northwest Wednesday unfortunately because of major fires in the Interior US and Canada.

Satellite image of Washington State showing abundant smoke over much of Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca Wednesday.
Photo from Seattle’s Lake Washington of the sunset view Wednesday evening through the thick smoke haze produced from Canadian fires. (Photo by NWS Seattle on Twitter)

BELOW were the highs Wednesday for select cities. Southwest WA and Western OR are being particularly hit hard by this heat wave. Interior Western WA and Puget Sound were actually sparred some of the worst of the heat today by the smoke; it was thick enough to act as a cloud to dampen the radiation and limit warming in places such as Seattle. It remains to be seen if that will be the case Thursday. If not, the hottest day if the heat may very well be Thursday for Western WA (and about the same for Western OR). This, along with an Air Quality Alert in effect for much of Western WA/OR means those in the area will need to not only be careful with strenuous activity to avoid heat-related illnesses, but also avoid breathing problems, if sensitive to such smoke particulates.

(record highs in red)

WASHINGTON

Seattle (National Weather Service Office): 88

Seattle (International Airport): 91 – Old Record 89 (2009). Special Note: Seattle also shattered its daily record for warmest minimum temperature with a morning low of 69 (old record was 61 set back in 2015) and it ranks as the 2nd warmest daily minimum temperature on record.

Olympia: 91

Hoquiam: 89 – Old Record 81 (1993)

Vancouver: 102

Quillayute (North WA Coast): 98 – Old Record 89 (1993). Special Note: This was likely caused by easterly downslope winds; easterly surface winds flowing along the higher hilly terrain descends down the slopes resulting in “adiabatic heating” (compression heating from increasing pressure on the air molecules as the flow drops in elevation). This hot air blows into town and shoots the temperature up fast. This process occurs throughout the region and is the reason why it is typically a “dry heat” in Western WA/OR during heat waves. The heated air becomes dry, with little moisture added to it.

OREGON

Astoria: 93 – Old Record 88 (1939)

Portland (International Airport): 103 – Old Record 96 (1986)

Troutdale (East Portland Metro): 105 – Old Record 99 (1995)

Hillsboro: 105 – Old Record 99 (1939)

Salem: 107 – Old Record 102 (1939)

Eugene: 102 – Old Record 99 (1939)

Medford: 112 – Old Record 105 (1993)

Klamath Falls: 99 – Old Record 94 (1977)

As you see, for Oregon, there was a major theme in the records for Wednesday’s climate stations. It was the hottest day many of these locations had seen on this date since 1939.

Please be safe if you live in this region the next couple of days. Drink PLENTY of water, take breaks from the heat as necessary, use fans if you don’t have air conditioning (common problem in this region, I lived there without air conditioning and the summers statistically are generally getting warmer because of anthropogenic climate change…), and again, like me, I have asthma; if you don’t need to do anything strenuous outside DON’T! Just drive instead of walk or just stay inside, cool and relax. The slightly cooler weather (still above normal, however) starts Friday.

The US is burning badly in 2017.

2017 at year-to-date is currently ranking at the 2nd highest acres burned on record! And much of that burning is happening in the forests of Alaska where climate change is having huge effects on both precipitation and warming temperatures.

I have to admit, I was surprised to see this amount of acreage burned. But, in reality it is really not that surprising. A very positive winter in terms of precipitation ended much of the drought in CA and the West. However, this was allowed for abundant vegetation growth for active fuels available. And now that summer long since come, the dry season means numerous fires from human activity and lightning from dry thunderstorms. I’m addition, abnormally dry soil conditions have begun to redevelop over the Four Corners States as well as rapidly deteriorating drought on the high plains of Montana.

National Drought Mitigation Center (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)

Here’s Alaska’s situation if you were so curious. They have become abnormally dry to moderate drought recently across much of the state.


There are 48 active fires across the Western US as of today (according to the Weather Channel).

If there are positives, it is that for parts of the Desert Southwest, the Monsoon, which can bring potentially fire starting thunderstorms can also bring beneficial rains to moisten soils and fuels, so as long as there isn’t too much falling at once (flash flooding from some storms is a common problem every year).

Wildfires have and are expected to continue to statistically increase in a warming world because of global climate change.