Thomas Fire in Southern CA becomes 5th largest in state history; 230,000 acres and growing

The Thomas Fire of Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties in Southern California has now become (as of Sunday Night) the 5th largest fire in California State history. And based on trends and fire weather expected, it may go for the state record (273,246 acres).  After winds decreased somewhat Friday afternoon-Saturday, they picked up again on Sunday, causing extreme fire growth to an incredible 50,000 acres and reducing the containment from 15% to 10%.

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Growth of Thomas Fire since last Tuesday’s ignition.
Since the fire developed last early-morning Tuesday, it has exhibited extreme fire behavior in intense Santa Ana winds with gusts of 45-80 mph, fanning flames and, more importantly, embers far downwind of the actual fire. Currently, 790 structures have been destroyed with the evacuation of over 88,000 people. A 70 year old woman died after being overtaken by the fire following suffering severe injuries in a car crash. In San Diego County, another woman was badly burned over 50% of her body in the Lilac Fire while helping horses escape from a thoroughbred training facility.  And speaking of horses…46 horses were confirmed killed at San Luis Rey Downs where the trainer was badly injured. The death toll will likely rise among the horses as 450 horses were there when the fire rapidly struck. Many burned to death refusing to leave their stables or running back into them, while others died from shock even after initially safely away from the fire’s path. Meanwhile, another 29 horses suffered a similar fate at a ranch in Los Angeles County’s Creek Fire.

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Dry or low precipitation conditions expected in mid-range computer models (this forecast depiction by the Global Forecast System; GFS) for much the Southwest US and Great Plains through December 20th.

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Forecast upper-atmospheric wave pattern valid noon CST Monday by the GFS. Powerful ridge of high pressure over the West will continue dry, very abnormally mild conditions while colder weather remains over the eastern US.
Unfortunately, high fire danger will continue through Monday with gusts over 45 mph allowing the Thomas Fire and any other fires which develop to easily spread and do so rapidly. Conditions should relax Monday night before possible re-intensification on Tuesday. As mentioned, the Thomas Fire may reach record territory tomorrow based on trends. And as of now, NO significant measurable rainfall is expected in California (or much of the Southwest US and Great Plains) the next 10 days. A blocking upper-atmospheric high pressure pattern over the Eastern Pacific will certainly allow for intensification of drought conditions and continued dryness and moderate to high fire danger for days to come. I should also note, fire danger will also be elevated on parts of the High Plains. Much of Eastern Colorado into Western Kansas are under red flag warnings for Monday because of expected elevated breezy conditions and low humidity with dry fuels.

—Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

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First Game of World Series Tonight…Weather Headline: HOT

The World Series begins tonight in Los Angeles between the LA Dodgers and the Houston Astros. And it begins with record heat in Southern California. Today, in fact, downtown LA is setting a record high for the day and it is the warmest temperature on record for so late in the year. This was after a record high of 102 was set for downtown LA yesterday. So far it has reached 103 downtown and the official high may be higher before the day is done.

First pitch for the World Series is at 5 pm PDT this evening. While temperatures will decrease somewhat by that time, game time temperatures will be in record territory for a World Series Game (95-100 degrees F). The hottest World Series first pitch on record was from a game (cannot remember which) in 2001 in Phoenix when the NY Yankees played on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks in a starting game temperature of 94 degrees.

In addition to heat, fire danger remains VERY high across Southern California as Santa Ana winds intensified today and will continue into tomorrow. RED FLAG WARNINGS are in effect for parts of SoCal. Gusts of 50-60 mph have caused problems for firefighters as they dealt with brush fires in Granada Hills this morning and Rancho Cucamonga this afternoon (LA Times). 

(Map of Rancho CucamongaMap of Granada Hills)

Game 2 of the World Series (First Pitch at 5 pm PDT Wed) should be slightly “cooler”, but still quite hot…expecting temperatures to start the game in the mid-90s (92-97 degrees F). If you’re going to these games or doing any outdoor activity at all in Southern California…lots of water and be careful with anything that sparks or burns!

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US Global Forecast System forecast temperatures at 5 pm PDT Tuesday.

Enjoy the game! Go American League and go Astros!

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

Biggest WxClimo Story of 2017…Wildfires.

Fires have been raging across the world this year with unprecedented scope. Major wildfire outbreaks have been notable from tropical rainforests in Africa and South America to the taiga of Canada and Russia. Even Greenland has seen an unusual amount of fire activity on the edge of the ice sheet. This year, Western North America, and the Iberian Peninsula of Europe have been particularly hard hit with life-threatening fires (see HERE, HERE, and HERE). Although fires occur every year with variable impacts, a significant upward trend can be tied to climate change allowing both natural and human activity to ignite and expand the destructive intensity of wildfires.

This video by Climate Central summarizes the impacts of these fires so far this year and their connection of climate change. This recent article by The Observer also summarizes fires around the world and the impacts of climate change.

 

(The featured satellite image above is from October 9, 2017 courtesy of the European Space Agency).

Quick update on Northern California Wildfires (plus weather forecast)

As of now (5:30 pm PDT), the death toll in the California Wildfires is up to 35 and is expected to go up further. 18 in  Sonoma County, 9 in Mendocino County, 4 in Yuba County and 4 in Napa County. 5700 structures have been destroyed and 221,000 acres have been burned. Treating the conglomeration of fires as a single event (as all the Northern CA ones initiated Sunday Night), this is by far the most destructive fire event in state history and one of the deadliest. Simply horrifying and very sad.

Firefighters have begun to have some containment success the past 48 hrs with slower winds and at least some periods of slightly improved humidity. However, tonight-Sunday morning will feature an intensification of extreme fire danger. This is because a strong surface high pressure system will advance toward the central Intermountain West this weekend, intensifying downsloping Diablo winds from the hilly and foothill mountainous terrain of Northern California. North-northeast winds may gust as high as 45-60 mph Saturday, inducing very low humidity values, drying out fuels and potentially promoting extreme fire behavior (high forward speed, rapid growth) in existing fires as well as any new fires. Red Flag Warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service to cover this forecast potential.

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Strong high pressure moving over OR, ID and NV Saturday will promote strong Diablo winds over Northern California. (NWS forecast surface map valid 11 am PDT Saturday).

There are no thunderstorms forecast, so any new fires would be likely started by human activity. So folks in these areas need to very much be careful with anything which can potentially start fire and really…just avoid starting any outdoor fire or using  anything which sparks.

Some good news…mid-range computer model forecasts suggest a pattern shift toward precipitation and cooler weather by the end of next week. Just have to get through the next week of fire activity before some meaningful hydrologic relief to aid the firefighting efforts.

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The Global Forecast System Model forecast accumulated total precipitation valid 8 pm PDT Friday. This is one forecast scenario, but all global models point toward a wetter pattern, beginning the second half of next week into next weekend.

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

Fire Conditions expected rest of this week and weekend for California

The fire conditions Wed Night into this morning were not as severe as expected thanks to weaker winds. This allowed firefighters to make some ground against fires through the night, however high fire danger remains and will continue for days into the future, with no rain in sight.

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Strengthening pressure gradients along the mountainous terrain of interior California and the warm, very dry air mass will promote high far danger with windy conditions near the mountains and adjacent valleys Fri Night-Sunday. (See tightly packed isobars…lines of equal pressure…on the map in CA just west of Nevada as high pressure shifts SE-ward over the Intermountain West).
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Very low dew points during the day Sat could mean relative humidity values as low as 10-20% across interior California, along with gusty winds for high fire danger.

Air quality remains terrible in the Bay Area. Folks in that region should do what they can to avoid being outside if at all possible.

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Unhealthy air quality exists across the entire Bay Area. Expect harmful air quality to be problematic into the weekend.

I’ll add any additional updates related to fires on this post today. Stay safe in these areas!

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

GOES-16 Satellite Loop of California Wildfire Smoke

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The new geostationary weather satellite, GOES-16 captured this high spatio-temporal resolution loop of the smoke plume over the Bay Area of Northern California this evening before sunset. The deep smoke is embedded in the low-level north winds, while the white, high cirrus clouds are in southwesterly flow. You can right click to save or open in the new tab to see the larger version of it. It’s amazing but frightening to know what’s happening under all that smoke.

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

California Fire Crisis (Wed Updates)

Update at 11:15 pm PDT Wed:

The Wine Country Fires in Northern California have now destroyed over 3500 structures, making it the most destructive fire event in state history. And with 23 deaths now reported, it is quickly approaching the record for the deadliest. There are still areas burned where police have yet to search for potential victims because the primary operations are focused on evacuations and maintaining safety in the current fluid situation. Unfortunately, given that the missing persons are over 280, even with many being found safe, the death toll is still likely to go up as some are found.

Amazing the disturbing level of destruction of this fire event. I was only 7 yrs old in 1991, but I remember the Oakland Hills Firestorm, as it was plastered all over the news as much as this event. I didn’t think I could imagine such a disastrous fire worse than that.

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Update at 5:30 pm PDT Wed: Update on the Meteorological Conditions in the Bay Area/Napa Valley Region.

Numerous fires continue to largely out of control over the Napa Valley/North Bay region. Heavy Smoke (with particulate matter >2.5 micrometers) is spreading southward over the Greater Bay Area reducing visibility and causing air quality to be considered very unhealthy for all individuals in the region with VERY UNHEALTHY conditions in the hilly terrain east of Santa Rosa and Oakland. If you can stay indoors, do so, especially for the young, elderly, and those with chronic breathing problems.

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Particulate smoke (<2.5 micrometers) being produced by the fires and spread southward from northerly winds. This is causing very poor air quality across the state of CA. (earth.nullschool.net)

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF N. AND C. CALIFORNIA FROM NOW UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. As high pressure builds across Oregon into NE. Nevada, easterly downsloping winds will intensify the foothills across the interior of Northern CA, increasing the threat for any fires which develop to spread quickly and existing fires to expand acreage quickly. These winds will help maintain very conditions longer into the night, slowing humidity recovery and allowing fires to potentially exhibit extreme behavior (heat, forward speed, self-maintenance). Winds may gust up to 45-50 mph in some areas.

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High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model forecast for around 10 pm PDT showing the intensifying pressure gradient and pressure ridging over the hills and mountains of northern CA. This will lead to development and intensification of dry Diablo winds overnight.
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The HRRR forecast valid for 1 am PDT showing widespread dew point temperatures in the mid-20s. With temps in the mid/upper-50s, this means humidity values in the 25-35% range, keeping fuels relatively dry for spreading fire in the face of 40-50 mph wind gusts near the foothills.

These fires have largely been a result of 1) the 5 yr extreme drought weakening trees 2) the very wet winter producing abundant brush growth 3) extreme hot, dry summer drying out all fuels.

New evacuation orders have already come out for some areas, including the City of Calistoga (northeast of Santa Rosa) where the entire town of over 5,000 are being told to leave. See the Impact Statement at the bottom of this post…but folks need to be ready to evacuate if necessary at a moment’s notice.

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

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CalFire has updated news at 11:30 am PDT and now say 21 people have been confirmed killed and 172,000 acres have now burned across the entire state. The most destructive fires are in North-Central California north of the Bay Area, but the Canyon 2 Fire continues to menace Anaheim in Southern California.

A RED FLAG WARNING is in effect for much of the interior valleys and foothill terrain of California.


This is for extreme fire danger today – Thursday. As high pressure builds this evening and tonight over Nevada and east of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, a NE-SW pressure gradient will intensify, leading to strong downslope winds known as Diablo winds or Santa Ana Winds (the former in Northern CA, the latter in Southern CA). These winds will gust potentially 40-45 mph+. In addition, because they are downsloping, the air undergoes adiabatic warming…warming caused by the air compressing as it flows down toward higher vertical pressure at lower elevations. The air not only warms, but also dries out, turning winds blasting out of canyons into a hot blow dryer…drying out fuels and allowing a fire to turn into a firestorm.

IMPACT STATEMENT:

I CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH…if you live in areas under the red flag warning or if you know anyone who lives in these areas, especially near the urban-wildland interface…please have a plan of what to do if a mandatory evacuation is ordered for your area and have a way to get warnings. ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. Stay in contact with friends/relatives, have someone stay up to watch tv or listen to radio, keep your phone on and charged, have a weather radio. Most importantly, make sure those smoke detectors are working as they may be a final warning of danger impacting your home at night. These fires may intensify or new ones may start Wed night-Thurs morning because of strengthening winds and the humidity…which normally increases at night…may not do so because of the very dry nature of the winds. This will allow for potentially explosive fire behavior. And please, be smart with anything related to flammable materials and clear any brush away from your home if possible, to give you more time if a fire does approach.

I really hope the situation does not worsen significantly. Fires are scary events and incredibly destructive. Please be safe and be ready if you are in these areas.

I’ll have updates on this page throughout today and tonight.

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey