Bud is now a hurricane (Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale as of this post) and expected to intensify as it moves over waters in the mid-80 F (28-29 C). With these very warm waters and weak vertical wind shear, I expect robust intensification during the next day or two. Steering currents will take take the system much closer to Mexico, making direct impacts by wind, wave action and rainfall likely vs. Aletta which stayed completely offshore. As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a portion of the mainland Pacific coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.
The tropical storm watch covers the possibility that the tropical storm force wind field…with sustained winds of 39 mph or greater…may graze the coastal communities late-Monday through late-Tuesday. Based on the as the track suggests, the system could also threaten Baja California by the end of the week. The system will likely go through its period of robust intensification through the next 24-36 hrs. Based on satellite trends tonight and the upper-level environment, I think it becoming a Category 4 hurricane (130 mph+) is not out of the question. Satellite estimates suggests the system may be approaching Category 2 (96-110 mph) status already. A stronger hurricane could mean a larger wind field and higher waves threatening more of the Pacific coast.
While it is still too early to determine the full impact that Bud will have on the Baja Peninsula, given the abnormally warm waters, it will likely be an organized cyclone with rain bands and some wind, but yet likely to weaken thanks to increasing vertical wind shear farther north. Although there’s a likelihood Bud will become a major hurricane, its slow forward motion over the next few days may induce cold upwelling, inducing earlier weakening than would otherwise occur. I think the likelihood of a Bud bringing hurricane-force winds to the Peninsula as low at this time.
So anyone traveling to the mainland areas, be mindful of locally heavy rainfall, rip currents and strong winds in the tropical storm watch area Monday-Tuesday. The southern tip of Baja California will know more about their threats by Tuesday.
–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey