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Tropical Storm Bud forms in Eastern Pacific Basin; Maliksi to move east of Japan

Tropical Storm Bud formed in the Eastern Pacific basin offshore Southwest Mexico Saturday afternoon. The cyclone is moving over sea surface temperatures in the mid-80s F (28-30 C) allowing for robust thunderstorms and modest vertical wind shear environment (winds are not increasingly rapidly with height). As a result, strengthening is expected over the coming 2-3 days and Bud is forecast by meteorological models to have a chance to become a hurricane early this week.

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Tropical Storm Bud at 1:30 am CDT.

Unlike Aletta, which became a powerful, but harmless major hurricane out in the open ocean, Bud may be an unusual June threat to the Baja California Peninsula by the end of the week. Water temperatures are running a couple of degrees C above normal near the tip of the Peninsula and some models have suggested Bud may be a fairly strong system as it approaches. However, this is still very early and much depends on the track forecast. Flooding rainfall is certainly a more serious threat and I would give additional mention to an increasing likelihood of early initiation to the US Southwest monsoon caused by the tropical cyclone remnants surging moisture northward from the Gulf of California beginning next weekend. We’ll know more on the hazards to both Baja and the Southwest US by mid-week.

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6-10 day Precipitation Outlook showing the probability for below, near, or above normal precipitation. The Southwest US in the middle of an ongoing extreme to exceptional drought.

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Hurricane Aletta as a Category 4 storm with maximum winds of 140 mph on Friday June 9, 2018.


Quick mention on a system in the Western Pacific. Tropical Storm Maliksi, which formed on June 8th, is forecast to move well offshore Japan through early this week. It may strengthen to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon Sunday (sustained winds as of this post, currently at 70 mph as analyzed by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center). In fact, it already appears to be nearing typhoon strength (74 mph+) based on its satellite presentation. Locally heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms in outer bands and high surf/rip currents likely the most significant hazards associated with the system as it advances offshore and becomes a non-tropical system.

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Tropical Storm (possibly soon to be Typhoon) Maliksi due south of southern Japan Sunday afternoon local time (1:50 am CDT Sunday morning in the US).

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Heavy rain and tropical moisture surge from Maliksi forecast to mostly stay offshore and effect the coastal areas of Japan with moderate to locally heavy rain early this week.

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

 

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