As of now (5:30 pm PDT), the death toll in the California Wildfires is up to 35 and is expected to go up further. 18 in Sonoma County, 9 in Mendocino County, 4 in Yuba County and 4 in Napa County. 5700 structures have been destroyed and 221,000 acres have been burned. Treating the conglomeration of fires as a single event (as all the Northern CA ones initiated Sunday Night), this is by far the most destructive fire event in state history and one of the deadliest. Simply horrifying and very sad.
Firefighters have begun to have some containment success the past 48 hrs with slower winds and at least some periods of slightly improved humidity. However, tonight-Sunday morning will feature an intensification of extreme fire danger. This is because a strong surface high pressure system will advance toward the central Intermountain West this weekend, intensifying downsloping Diablo winds from the hilly and foothill mountainous terrain of Northern California. North-northeast winds may gust as high as 45-60 mph Saturday, inducing very low humidity values, drying out fuels and potentially promoting extreme fire behavior (high forward speed, rapid growth) in existing fires as well as any new fires. Red Flag Warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service to cover this forecast potential.
There are no thunderstorms forecast, so any new fires would be likely started by human activity. So folks in these areas need to very much be careful with anything which can potentially start fire and really…just avoid starting any outdoor fire or using anything which sparks.
Some good news…mid-range computer model forecasts suggest a pattern shift toward precipitation and cooler weather by the end of next week. Just have to get through the next week of fire activity before some meaningful hydrologic relief to aid the firefighting efforts.
–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey