Hurricane Maria is beginning to emerge from the island of Puerto Rico after the center made landfall 8 1/2 hrs ago as a Category 4 storm with max winds of 155 mph (Cat 5 is 156+ so catastrophic wind speeds occurred).
The hurricane is now a Category 3 storm with 115 mph sustained winds and gusts over 130 mph near the center. Damaging winds and torrential flooding rains will continue for the rest of the afternoon as the system continues to push out into open ocean water.
Most computer models indicate the system should remain offshore the United States as it moves north in a weakness in the upper level higher pressure field caused by the presence of Tropical Storm Jose offshore the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
The crucial timing to be rid of Maria forever will be the approach of a significant upper level trough of low pressure from the Midwest midweek next week to “kick” the dying hurricane out to sea. Most models show this connection keeping the system offshore being, however there is higher variability in the track after Monday which could bring the system closer to shore than expected. Currently, I feel direct impacts…the tropical storm force wind field and significant rain bands…will likely (66%+ probability) stay offshore. But potential variability makes the situation worth watching closely.
Regardless, high surf and rip currents (currents which pull water offshore and make swimming dangerous) are likely by early next week. The system will also be weaker offshore the East Coast thanks to less intense sea surface temperatures and increasing vertical wind shear from mid-latitude winds.
In the meantime, direct impacts from a Cat 3-4 storm are likely for north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southern Bahamas. Hurricane warnings are in effect for all these areas.
–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey