Tropical Storm Franklin moving over the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon

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Tropical Storm Franklin made landfall last night near Pulticub, Mexico at approximately 10:45 pm CDT with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph.  Since last night, the system has continued to move over land, remaining fairly well-organized but has weakened some thanks to land interaction with maximum sustained winds now down to 45 mph as of 10 am CDT. However, the National Hurricane Center in Miami anticipates re-strengthening after it enters the Bay of Campeche tonight. The waters in the Bay are piping HOT – 30-32 degrees C (88-90 degrees). These waters are fuel for robust intensification. With that said, northerly wind shear over the Bay is expected to impact Franklin during the day Wednesday as it heads for mainland Mexico, limiting rapid intensification. However, it could be a 70-75 mph tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane when it makes its expected landfall late Wed night/early Thursday morning. If Franklin becomes the first hurricane of the season tomorrow, it would do so around the climatological average time for the North Atlantic Basin (1966-2009) of August 10th. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch is in effect for the expected landfall region.

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After landfall, there is expected to be 8-12+ inches of rain over the mountainous terrain of Eastern Mexico. Flash flooding and life-threatening landslides are likely.

For those curious and who watch the tropics, you might have been tracking this system since it left West Africa last week.

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Models have continuously wanted to make something of it but of course as it goes, when it comes to tropical cyclones, until it actually develops, the evolution of the system is difficult for numerical models to pin down. This system is no different. However, the wave still has some cohesive structure and therefore potential in the next 5 days to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves east-northeastward over the open Atlantic. As long as computer models continue to give the wave an opportunity to develop, it is worth watching.

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Author: Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

Meteorologist and geoscientist in Lincoln, NE. Seattle, WA native. Love weather, storm chasing/photography and planetary science.

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